Implied Probability

The win probability priced into a moneyline, expressed as a percentage.

Implied probability converts American moneyline odds to a percentage. A −150 favorite has an implied probability of 60% (150 / (150+100)); a +150 underdog has an implied probability of 40%. Across both sides of a market, the sum of implied probabilities exceeds 100% — the difference is the sportsbook's juice.

All glossary entries · Methodology