Inside Edge
Minnesota Twins63.6% K O 5.558.3% BBA O 1.557.1% ER O 1.5
Season
All Pablo Lopez propsProps — 202514 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
12g50%Over: 6-6
2vs O 1.5-185
vs
Guardians9/19
Guardians9/19✓✗✓✗✓✗✗✓✗✓
H: 50%(4)A: 66.7%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
4(29%)
Total Matchups
14Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lopez's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 5.5 | Earned RunsO 1.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | — | 0%(0-2) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-3) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(1-0) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 50%(1-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
9/19Right-handed starters have an ERA of 3.44 against the Guardians in the past 30 days, but other matchup data favors the Guardians.
★★★★★
9/12Diamondbacks hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Lopez.
★★★★★
9/5Royals hitters have a 1.5 star average matchup against Lopez.
Game Log
Bet
$
6-7 Over12g · 13 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19 | vsGuardians | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +121 |
| 9/19 | vsGuardians | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -185 |
| 9/12 | vs Diamondbacks | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -155 |
| 9/5 | @ Royals | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -145 |
| 6/3 | @ Athletics | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 5/28 | @ Rays | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +115 |
| 5/23 | vsRoyals | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -140 |
| 5/17 | @ Brewers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -140 |
| 5/11 | vs Giants | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +110 |
| 5/6 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +105 |
| 4/30 | @Guardians | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -160 |
| 4/25 | vs Angels | O 1.5 | 2 | W | +115 |
| 4/8 | @Royals | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +100 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Pablo Lopez hit the over on earned runs 1.5?
Pablo Lopez hits the over on earned runs 1.5 57.1% of the time in 2025, going 4-3 with an average actual of 1.3.
Is Pablo Lopez over 1.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 12 games in 2025, betting $100 on Pablo Lopez over 1.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$74 (-6.17% ROI). The hit rate is 57.1% with an average actual of 1.3.
What is Pablo Lopez's earned runs average this season?
Pablo Lopez averages 1.3 earned runs per game in 2025 across 12 games. The primary line is set at 1.5.