Merrill Kelly

Arizona DiamondbacksPitcher•2026

Reg5.79 ERA / 53 K / 85.5 IP / 5.6 K/9 / 15G

76.9% HA O 5.571.4% K O 2.570% BBA O 1.5

Season

Best Performer

Merrill Kelly goes over 1.5 pitcher ks 84.6% of the time (11-2)

Props — 202614 games with closing lines

Outs Recorded

14g

avg 17.4

50%Over: 7-7

15vs O 16.5-130

Brewers7/4

✗✓✓✗✓✗✗✓✓✓

H: 40%(5)A: 80%(5)

Pitcher Ks

14g

avg 3.6

71.4%Over: 10-4

6vs O 2.5-295

Brewers7/4

✓✓✗✓✗✓✗✓✓✓

H: 100%(6)A: 50%(8)

Earned Runs

14g

avg 3.8

57.1%Over: 8-6

2vs O 2.5

Brewers7/4

✗✓✓✓✗✓✗✗✓✗

H: 66.7%(6)A: 50%(6)

Hits Allowed

14g

avg 6.8

71.4%Over: 10-4

8vs O 5.5-155

Brewers7/4

✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓✗

H: 83.3%(6)A: 71.4%(7)

Walks Allowed

14g

avg 2.2

71.4%Over: 10-4

2vs O 2.5+132

Brewers7/4

✗✓✓✗✓✓✓✓✗✗

H: 50%(4)A: 83.3%(6)

Inside Edge

Star Ratings

Avg Rating

2.5★★★★★

5-Star Games

1(7%)

Total Matchups

Distribution

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

Stars	Outs RecordedO 17.5	Pitcher KsO 2.5	Earned RunsO 2.5	Hits AllowedO 5.5	Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★	—	0%(0-1)	100%(1-0)	100%(1-0)	—
★★★★★	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)
★★★★★	33.3%(1-2)	33.3%(1-2)	66.7%(2-1)	100%(3-0)	100%(3-0)
★★★★★	66.7%(2-1)	100%(5-0)	75%(3-1)	100%(5-0)	66.7%(2-1)
★★★★★	100%(2-0)	100%(3-0)	0%(0-2)	0%(0-2)	50%(1-1)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Brandon Woodruff

7/4

Right-handed starters have an ERA of 5.38 against the Brewers in the past 30 days.

★★★★★vs Drew Rasmussen

6/28

Several hitters in the Rays lineup have a 5-star matchup against Kelly today.

★★★★★vs Andre Pallante

6/22

Kelly has struck out 30.8% of the Cardinals hitters he has faced in 26 PA's over the last 2 years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Cardinals.

Game Log

Bet

79-100 Over179 props

Date ↓	Opp	Market	Line	Actual	Result	Odds
7/4	vsBrewers	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	15	L	-130
7/4	vsBrewers	Earned Runs	O 2.5	2	L	—
7/4	vsBrewers	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	8	W	-155
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	6	W	-295
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	6	L	—
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	6	L	+1000
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	6	W	+454
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	6	W	+205
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	6	W	-114
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	6	W	-1040
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	6	W	—
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	6	L	—
7/4	vsBrewers	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	6	L	—
7/4	vsBrewers	Earned Runs	O 3.5	2	L	+105
7/4	vsBrewers	Hits Allowed	O 6.5	8	W	-107
7/4	vsBrewers	Walks Allowed	O 2.5	2	L	+132
6/28	@Rays	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	8	W	-119
6/28	@Rays	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	18	W	-124
6/28	@Rays	Earned Runs	O 2.5	5	W	-140
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	3	L	-125
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	3	L	+410
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	3	L	+880
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	3	W	-300
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	3	L	+188
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	3	L	—
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	3	W	-1260
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	3	L	—
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	3	L	—
6/28	@Rays	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	2	W	-172
6/28	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	3	W	—
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	2	L	+495
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	2	L	+220
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	2	L	-250
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	2	L	-104
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	2	L	—
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	2	W	-860
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	2	W	—
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	2	L	+1080
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	2	L	—
6/22	@Cardinals	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	7	W	-140
6/22	@Cardinals	Earned Runs	O 2.5	3	W	-138
6/22	@Cardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	2	L	—
6/22	@Cardinals	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	18	W	-135
6/22	@Cardinals	Hits Allowed	O 6.5	7	W	+120
6/22	@Cardinals	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	3	W	-186
6/16	vsAngels	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	4	W	-204
6/16	vsAngels	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	4	W	-571
6/16	vsAngels	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	4	L	+562
6/16	vsAngels	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	4	L	+118
6/16	vsAngels	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	4	L	+259

Arizona Diamondbacks Teammates

View all

Corbin Carroll Ketel Marte Geraldo Perdomo Nolan Arenado Gabriel Moreno Ildemaro Vargas Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Adrian Del Castillo Jose Fernandez Tommy Troy Jorge Barrosa Ryan Waldschmidt Pavin Smith Alek Thomas Tim Tawa

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on outs recorded 17.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on outs recorded 17.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 6-4 with an average actual of 17.4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$59.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on pitcher ks 2.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on pitcher ks 2.5 71.4% of the time in 2026, going 10-4 with an average actual of 3.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$188.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on earned runs 2.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on earned runs 2.5 58.3% of the time in 2026, going 7-5 with an average actual of 3.8. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$207.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 76.9% of the time in 2026, going 10-3 with an average actual of 7. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$615.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 70% of the time in 2026, going 7-3 with an average actual of 1.8. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$182.

What are Merrill Kelly's best prop bets in 2026?

Merrill Kelly's highest-hitting props in 2026: Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 76.9% (10-3); Pitcher Ks O 2.5 at 71.4% (10-4); Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 70% (7-3).