Inside Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks83.3% K O 1.580% HA O 5.575% ER O 2.5
Season
Best Performer
Merrill Kelly goes over 1.5 pitcher ks 83.3% of the time (5-1)
Props — 20266 games with closing lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(17%)
Total Matchups
6Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Outs RecordedO 16.5 | Pitcher KsO 1.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — |
| ★★★★★ | — | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | — | 100%(2-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Tyler Mahle
5/20Current Giants hitters have an OPS of .856 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Kelly over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Kyle Freeland
5/15Rockies hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Kelly.
★★★★★vs Clay Holmes
5/9Mets hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Kelly.
Game Log
Bet
$
36-37 Over73 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Market | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | vs Giants | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +264 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 4 | W | -189 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 4 | L | +123 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 4 | L | +550 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -501 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 18 | W | -149 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -2100 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -120 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 4 | L | +1160 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -119 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -135 |
| 5/15 | @ Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -3000 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 27 | W | -103 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -102 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -630 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +220 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 3 | L | +840 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 3 | L | +450 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 3 | L | +1640 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 3 | L | -238 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Hits Allowed | O 6.5 | 4 | L | +104 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Earned Runs | O 3.5 | 1 | L | -103 |
| 5/15 | @Rockies | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -156 |
| 5/9 | vs Mets | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 6 | L | +442 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -550 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 6 | W | +102 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 6 | L | +900 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +212 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 6 | W | -220 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 6 | L | +1820 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 6 | W | -2400 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -140 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 21 | W | +100 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +100 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Walks Allowed | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +117 |
| 5/9 | vsMets | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 21 | W | -141 |
| 5/3 | @ Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -154 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -388 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +154 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +320 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +700 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Earned Runs | O 3.5 | 6 | W | -118 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -115 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Outs Recorded | O 15.5 | 13 | L | +115 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 5 | W | -1400 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 5 | L | +1220 |
| 5/3 | @Cubs | Walks Allowed | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +122 |
| 4/28 | @ Brewers | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -111 |
| 4/28 | @Brewers | Hits Allowed | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -140 |
| 4/28 | @Brewers | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 15 | L | -101 |
Arizona Diamondbacks Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on outs recorded 16.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on outs recorded 16.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 2-1 with an average actual of 21. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$68.
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on pitcher ks 1.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on pitcher ks 1.5 83.3% of the time in 2026, going 5-1 with an average actual of 4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$78.
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on earned runs 2.5 75% of the time in 2026, going 3-1 with an average actual of 4.3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$184.
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 80% of the time in 2026, going 4-1 with an average actual of 7. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$314.
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 33.3% of the time in 2026, going 1-2 with an average actual of 1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$141.
What are Merrill Kelly's best prop bets in 2026?
Merrill Kelly's highest-hitting props in 2026: Pitcher Ks O 1.5 at 83.3% (5-1); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 80% (4-1); Earned Runs O 2.5 at 75% (3-1).