Merrill Kelly

Arizona Diamondbacks•Pitcher•2026

5.46ERA84K126.9IP6.0K/923G

75% BBA O 1.561.9% HA O 5.554.5% K O 3.5

Season

Best Performer

Merrill Kelly goes over 1.5 walks allowed 75% of the time (12-4)

Props — 202622 games with closing lines

Outs Recorded

22g

avg 16.9

45.5%Over: 10-12

12vs O 16.5

Red Sox8/18

✗✗✓✗✓✗✗✓✗✓

H: 50%(4)A: 40%(5)

Pitcher Ks

22g

avg 3.7

54.5%Over: 12-10

2vs O 3.5-126

Red Sox8/18

✗✗✓✓✓✗✗✓✓✗

H: 70%(10)A: 41.7%(12)

Earned Runs

22g

avg 3.4

50%Over: 11-11

6vs O 2.5-122

Red Sox8/18

✓✓✗✓✗✗✗✗✗✓

H: 50%(10)A: 50%(10)

Hits Allowed

22g

avg 6.1

59.1%Over: 13-9

7vs O 5.5-113

Red Sox8/18

✓✓✗✓✗✗✗✗✓✓

H: 60%(10)A: 63.6%(11)

Walks Allowed

21g

avg 2.5

76.2%Over: 16-5

4vs O 1.5-139

Red Sox8/18

✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓✓

H: 57.1%(7)A: 88.9%(9)

Inside Edge

Star Ratings

Avg Rating

2.5★★★★★

5-Star Games

1(5%)

Total Matchups

Distribution

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

Stars	Outs RecordedO 16.5	Pitcher KsO 3.5	Earned RunsO 2.5	Hits AllowedO 5.5	Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★	0%(0-1)	0%(0-1)	100%(1-0)	100%(1-0)	—
★★★★★	0%(0-2)	60%(3-2)	60%(3-2)	60%(3-2)	80%(4-1)
★★★★★	—	25%(1-3)	50%(2-2)	75%(3-1)	100%(4-0)
★★★★★	33.3%(1-2)	71.4%(5-2)	66.7%(4-2)	85.7%(6-1)	75%(3-1)
★★★★★	100%(3-0)	60%(3-2)	0%(0-4)	0%(0-4)	33.3%(1-2)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Ranger Suarez

8/18

Red Sox hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Kelly.

★★★★★vs Ryan Feltner

8/12

Rockies hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Kelly.

★★★★★vs Roki Sasaki

8/7

Dodgers hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Kelly.

Game Log

Bet

129-177-1 Over307 props

Date ↓	Opp	Market	Line	Actual	Result	Odds
8/18	@Red Sox	Earned Runs	O 2.5	6	W	-122
8/18	@Red Sox	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	12	L	-122
8/18	@Red Sox	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	7	W	-113
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	2	L	-126
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	2	L	+970
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	2	L	+432
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	2	W	-1320
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	2	L	-325
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	2	L	+187
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	2	L	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	2	L	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	2	W	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Pitcher Ks	O 4	2	L	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	12	L	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	4	W	-139
8/18	@Red Sox	Outs Recorded	O 20.5	12	L	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	12	L	—
8/18	@Red Sox	Outs Recorded	O 14.5	12	L	—
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	2	L	+340
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	2	L	-650
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	2	L	+155
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	2	L	-125
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	2	L	-275
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	2	L	+750
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	2	L	+1500
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	2	W	—
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	2	L	—
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 10.5	2	L	—
8/12	vsRockies	Earned Runs	O 2.5	6	W	-112
8/12	vsRockies	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	6	W	-110
8/12	vsRockies	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	3	W	+108
8/12	vsRockies	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	15	L	-130
8/12	vsRockies	Pitcher Ks	O 5	2	L	—
8/12	vsRockies	Outs Recorded	O 20.5	15	L	—
8/12	vsRockies	Outs Recorded	O 14.5	15	W	—
8/12	vsRockies	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	15	L	—
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	4	W	-350
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	4	L	+172
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	4	W	-1380
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	4	W	-137
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	4	L	+880
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	4	L	+395
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	4	L	—
8/7	vsDodgers	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	2	L	-115
8/7	vsDodgers	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	17	W	-108
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	4	W	—
8/7	vsDodgers	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	4	L	—
8/7	vsDodgers	Earned Runs	O 3.5	1	L	—
8/7	vsDodgers	Earned Runs	O 2.5	1	L	-159
8/7	vsDodgers	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	17	W	—

Arizona Diamondbacks Teammates

View all

Corbin Carroll Geraldo Perdomo Ketel Marte Nolan Arenado Gabriel Moreno Ildemaro Vargas Ryan Waldschmidt Lars Nootbaar Tim Tawa Adrian Del Castillo Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Jose Fernandez Tommy Troy Jorge Barrosa Max Kepler

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on outs recorded 16.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on outs recorded 16.5 44.4% of the time in 2026, going 4-5 with an average actual of 17.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$36.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on pitcher ks 3.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on pitcher ks 3.5 54.5% of the time in 2026, going 12-10 with an average actual of 3.7. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$293.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on earned runs 2.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on earned runs 2.5 50% of the time in 2026, going 10-10 with an average actual of 3.4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$42.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 61.9% of the time in 2026, going 13-8 with an average actual of 6.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$481.

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?

Merrill Kelly hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 75% of the time in 2026, going 12-4 with an average actual of 2.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$397.

What are Merrill Kelly's best prop bets in 2026?

Merrill Kelly's highest-hitting props in 2026: Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 75% (12-4); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 61.9% (13-8); Pitcher Ks O 3.5 at 54.5% (12-10).

Stars

Outs RecordedO 16.5

Pitcher KsO 3.5

Earned RunsO 2.5

Hits AllowedO 5.5

Walks AllowedO 1.5

★★★★★

0%(0-1)

100%(1-0)

—

★★★★★

0%(0-2)

60%(3-2)

80%(4-1)

★★★★★

—

25%(1-3)

50%(2-2)

75%(3-1)

100%(4-0)

★★★★★

33.3%(1-2)

71.4%(5-2)

66.7%(4-2)

85.7%(6-1)

75%(3-1)

★★★★★

100%(3-0)

60%(3-2)

0%(0-4)

33.3%(1-2)

Date ↓

Opp

Market

Line

Actual

Result

Odds