Arizona Diamondbacks76.9% HA O 5.571.4% K O 2.570% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Merrill Kelly propsProps — 202614 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
14g71.4%Over: 10-4
8vs O 5.5-155
vs
Brewers7/4
Brewers7/4✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓✗
H: 83.3%(6)A: 71.4%(7)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.5★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(7%)
Total Matchups
14Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Outs RecordedO 17.5 | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | — | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(3-0) | 100%(3-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(5-0) | 75%(3-1) | 100%(5-0) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(3-0) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-2) | 50%(1-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Brandon Woodruff
7/4Right-handed starters have an ERA of 5.38 against the Brewers in the past 30 days.
★★★★★vs Drew Rasmussen
6/28Several hitters in the Rays lineup have a 5-star matchup against Kelly today.
★★★★★vs Andre Pallante
6/22Kelly has struck out 30.8% of the Cardinals hitters he has faced in 26 PA's over the last 2 years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Cardinals.
Game Log
Bet
$
15-6 Over14g · 21 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4 | vsBrewers | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -155 |
| 7/4 | vsBrewers | O 6.5 | 8 | W | -107 |
| 6/28 | @ Rays | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -119 |
| 6/22 | @ Cardinals | O 5.5 | 7 | W | -140 |
| 6/22 | @Cardinals | O 6.5 | 7 | W | +120 |
| 6/16 | vs Angels | O 5.5 | 11 | W | -110 |
| 6/11 | @ Marlins | O 5.5 | 4 | L | -135 |
| 6/11 | @Marlins | O 6.5 | 4 | L | +117 |
| 6/5 | vs Nationals | O 6.5 | 6 | L | +120 |
| 6/5 | vsNationals | O 5.5 | 6 | W | -151 |
| 5/31 | @ Mariners | O 5.5 | 8 | W | +124 |
| 5/31 | @Mariners | O 4.5 | 8 | W | -166 |
| 5/25 | @ Giants | O 5.5 | 4 | L | -120 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -120 |
| 5/15 | @ Rockies | O 6.5 | 4 | L | +104 |
| 5/9 | vs Mets | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +100 |
| 5/3 | @ Cubs | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -115 |
| 4/28 | @Brewers | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -140 |
| 4/28 | @Brewers | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +123 |
| 4/21 | vs White Sox | O 5.5 | 10 | W | +121 |
| 4/21 | vsWhite Sox | O 4.5 | 10 | W | -140 |
Arizona Diamondbacks Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 76.9% of the time in 2026, going 10-3 with an average actual of 7.
Is Merrill Kelly over 5.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 14 games in 2026, betting $100 on Merrill Kelly over 5.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned +$515 (+36.79% ROI). The hit rate is 76.9% with an average actual of 7.
What is Merrill Kelly's hits allowed average this season?
Merrill Kelly averages 7 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 14 games. The primary line is set at 5.5.
Inside Edge