Inside Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks83.3% K O 1.580% HA O 5.575% ER O 2.5
Season
All Merrill Kelly propsProps — 20266 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
6g66.7%Over: 4-2
3vs O 2.5-119
vs
Giants5/20
Giants5/20✓✗✗✓✓✓
H: 66.7%(3)A: 100%(1)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(17%)
Total Matchups
6Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Outs RecordedO 16.5 | Pitcher KsO 1.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — |
| ★★★★★ | — | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | — | 100%(2-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Tyler Mahle
5/20Current Giants hitters have an OPS of .856 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Kelly over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Kyle Freeland
5/15Rockies hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Kelly.
★★★★★vs Clay Holmes
5/9Mets hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Kelly.
Game Log
Bet
$
4-2 Over6g · 6 props
Arizona Diamondbacks Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on earned runs 2.5 75% of the time in 2026, going 3-1 with an average actual of 4.3.
Is Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 6 games in 2026, betting $100 on Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$169 (+28.17% ROI). The hit rate is 75% with an average actual of 4.3.
What is Merrill Kelly's earned runs average this season?
Merrill Kelly averages 4.3 earned runs per game in 2026 across 6 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.