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Players/MLB/Arizona Diamondbacks/Merrill Kelly/Earned Runs
Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly

Arizona Diamondbacks•Pitcher•2026
5.46ERA84K126.9IP6.0K/923G
5.46ERA84K126.9IP6.0K/923G
75% BBA O 1.561.9% HA O 5.554.5% K O 3.5
Season
All Merrill Kelly props

Props — 202622 games with closing lines

Earned Runs

22g
avg 3.4
50%Over: 11-11
6vs O 2.5-122
@Red Sox8/18
✓✓✗✓✗✗✗✗✗✓
H: 50%(10)A: 50%(10)
SeasonalityAll lines
100%
25%
80%
0%
75%
Apr
2-0
May
1-3
Jun
4-1
Jul
0-5
Aug
3-1
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
2.5★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(5%)
Total Matchups
22
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsOuts RecordedO 16.5Pitcher KsO 3.5Earned RunsO 2.5Hits AllowedO 5.5Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★0%(0-1)0%(0-1)100%(1-0)100%(1-0)—
★★★★★0%(0-2)60%(3-2)60%(3-2)60%(3-2)80%(4-1)
★★★★★—25%(1-3)50%(2-2)75%(3-1)100%(4-0)
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)71.4%(5-2)66.7%(4-2)85.7%(6-1)75%(3-1)
★★★★★100%(3-0)60%(3-2)0%(0-4)0%(0-4)33.3%(1-2)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Ranger Suarez
8/18

Red Sox hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Kelly.

★★★★★vs Ryan Feltner
8/12

Rockies hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Kelly.

★★★★★vs Roki Sasaki
8/7

Dodgers hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Kelly.

Game Log

Bet
$
11-13 Over22g · 24 props
Date ↓OppLineActualResultOdds
8/18@Red SoxO 2.56W-122
8/12vsRockiesO 2.56W-112
8/7vsDodgersO 3.51L—
8/7vsDodgersO 2.51L-159
8/2@GuardiansO 2.55W-125
7/27@PiratesO 2.50L-160
7/22vsAthleticsO 2.52L-130
7/17vsCardinalsO 2.51L-122
7/9@PadresO 2.51L-150
7/4vsBrewersO 2.52L—
7/4vsBrewersO 3.52L+105
6/28@RaysO 2.55W-140
6/22@CardinalsO 2.53W-138
6/16vsAngelsO 2.56W-101
6/11@MarlinsO 2.52L-128
6/5vsNationalsO 2.57W-125
5/31@MarinersO 2.52L+100
5/25@GiantsO 2.52L-110
5/20vsGiantsO 2.53W-119
5/15@RockiesO 3.51L-103
5/9vsMetsO 2.51L-140
5/3@CubsO 3.56W-118
4/28@BrewersO 2.55W-111
4/21vsWhite SoxO 2.58W+110

Arizona Diamondbacks Teammates

View all
Corbin CarrollGeraldo PerdomoKetel MarteNolan ArenadoGabriel MorenoIldemaro VargasRyan WaldschmidtLars NootbaarTim TawaAdrian Del CastilloLourdes Gurriel Jr.Jose FernandezTommy TroyJorge BarrosaMax Kepler

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on earned runs 2.5 50% of the time in 2026, going 10-10 with an average actual of 3.4.
Is Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 22 games in 2026, betting $100 on Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$57 (-2.59% ROI). The hit rate is 50% with an average actual of 3.4.
What is Merrill Kelly's earned runs average this season?
Merrill Kelly averages 3.4 earned runs per game in 2026 across 22 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.

Merrill Kelly 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.22 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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