Arizona Diamondbacks76.9% HA O 5.571.4% K O 2.570% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Merrill Kelly propsProps — 202614 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
14g57.1%Over: 8-6
2vs O 2.5
vs
Brewers7/4
Brewers7/4✗✓✓✓✗✓✗✗✓✗
H: 66.7%(6)A: 50%(6)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.5★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(7%)
Total Matchups
14Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Outs RecordedO 17.5 | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | — | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(3-0) | 100%(3-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(5-0) | 75%(3-1) | 100%(5-0) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(3-0) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-2) | 50%(1-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Brandon Woodruff
7/4Right-handed starters have an ERA of 5.38 against the Brewers in the past 30 days.
★★★★★vs Drew Rasmussen
6/28Several hitters in the Rays lineup have a 5-star matchup against Kelly today.
★★★★★vs Andre Pallante
6/22Kelly has struck out 30.8% of the Cardinals hitters he has faced in 26 PA's over the last 2 years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Cardinals.
Game Log
Bet
$
8-7 Over14g · 15 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4 | vsBrewers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | — |
| 7/4 | vsBrewers | O 3.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 6/28 | @ Rays | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -140 |
| 6/22 | @ Cardinals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -138 |
| 6/16 | vs Angels | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -101 |
| 6/11 | @ Marlins | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -128 |
| 6/5 | vs Nationals | O 2.5 | 7 | W | -125 |
| 5/31 | @ Mariners | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +100 |
| 5/25 | @ Giants | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -110 |
| 5/20 | vsGiants | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -119 |
| 5/15 | @ Rockies | O 3.5 | 1 | L | -103 |
| 5/9 | vs Mets | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -140 |
| 5/3 | @ Cubs | O 3.5 | 6 | W | -118 |
| 4/28 | @Brewers | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -111 |
| 4/21 | vs White Sox | O 2.5 | 8 | W | +110 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Merrill Kelly hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Merrill Kelly hits the over on earned runs 2.5 58.3% of the time in 2026, going 7-5 with an average actual of 3.8.
Is Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 14 games in 2026, betting $100 on Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$192 (+13.71% ROI). The hit rate is 58.3% with an average actual of 3.8.
What is Merrill Kelly's earned runs average this season?
Merrill Kelly averages 3.8 earned runs per game in 2026 across 14 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge