Inside Edge
Tampa Bay Rays71.4% BBA O 1.566.7% ER O 1.562.5% K O 2.5
Season
Best Performer
Steven Matz goes over 1.5 pitcher ks 83.3% of the time (5-1)
Props — 20268 games with closing lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(14%)
Total Matchups
7Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Matz's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 1.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Tyler Mahle
5/3Left-handed starters have an ERA of 3.20 against the Giants since last season.
★★★★★vs Parker Messick
4/27Current Guardians hitters have struck out 26.7% of the time against pitchers similar to Matz over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
★★★★★vs Chase Burns
4/21Current Reds hitters are batting .229 against left-handers who rely heavily on the slider like like Matz over the the last two years.
Game Log
Bet
$
48-60 Over108 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Market | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | vs Orioles | Outs Recorded | O 14.5 | 12 | L | -105 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Earned Runs | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -139 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Outs Recorded | O 13.5 | 12 | L | -119 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Hits Allowed | O 4.5 | 3 | L | +120 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -175 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +581 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +275 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 5 | W | -1900 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 5 | L | +1320 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 2 | W | +113 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +125 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -500 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | Hits Allowed | O 3.5 | 3 | L | -148 |
| 5/3 | vs Giants | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 18 | W | -103 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 1 | L | -104 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -3600 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -650 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 1 | L | -250 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 1 | L | +185 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 1 | L | +360 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 1 | L | +830 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Outs Recorded | O 15.5 | 18 | W | -131 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +118 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +115 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 18 | W | +100 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Hits Allowed | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -150 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 1 | L | +1680 |
| 5/3 | vsGiants | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 2 | W | +143 |
| 4/27 | @ Guardians | Outs Recorded | O 15.5 | 21 | W | +135 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 2 | L | +136 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 2 | L | -168 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -452 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 2 | L | +300 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 2 | L | +640 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Earned Runs | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -170 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Hits Allowed | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -130 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -1960 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 2 | L | +1360 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Outs Recorded | O 14.5 | 21 | W | -175 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -113 |
| 4/21 | vs Reds | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +132 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -1240 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 4 | W | -398 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -165 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 4 | L | +267 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 4 | L | +553 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 4 | L | +1120 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Outs Recorded | O 15.5 | 9 | L | +110 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | Pitcher Ks | O 9.5 | 4 | L | +1680 |
Tampa Bay Rays Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on pitcher ks 2.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on pitcher ks 2.5 62.5% of the time in 2026, going 5-3 with an average actual of 4.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$219.
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on earned runs 1.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on earned runs 1.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 4-2 with an average actual of 2.3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$37.
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 25% of the time in 2026, going 2-6 with an average actual of 3.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$466.
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 71.4% of the time in 2026, going 5-2 with an average actual of 2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$354.
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on outs recorded 15.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on outs recorded 15.5 57.1% of the time in 2026, going 4-3 with an average actual of 16. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$146.
What are Steven Matz's best prop bets in 2026?
Steven Matz's highest-hitting props in 2026: Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 71.4% (5-2); Earned Runs O 1.5 at 66.7% (4-2); Pitcher Ks O 2.5 at 62.5% (5-3).