Inside Edge
Tampa Bay Rays71.4% BBA O 1.566.7% ER O 1.562.5% K O 2.5
Season
All Steven Matz propsProps — 20268 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
8g25%Over: 2-6
3vs O 4.5+120
vs
Orioles5/20
Orioles5/20✗✗✗✗✓✗✗✓
H: 0%(4)A: 50%(4)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(14%)
Total Matchups
7Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Matz's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 1.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Tyler Mahle
5/3Left-handed starters have an ERA of 3.20 against the Giants since last season.
★★★★★vs Parker Messick
4/27Current Guardians hitters have struck out 26.7% of the time against pitchers similar to Matz over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
★★★★★vs Chase Burns
4/21Current Reds hitters are batting .229 against left-handers who rely heavily on the slider like like Matz over the the last two years.
Game Log
Bet
$
2-9 Over8g · 11 props
Tampa Bay Rays Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 25% of the time in 2026, going 2-6 with an average actual of 3.9.
Is Steven Matz over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 8 games in 2026, betting $100 on Steven Matz over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$466 (-58.25% ROI). The hit rate is 25% with an average actual of 3.9.
What is Steven Matz's hits allowed average this season?
Steven Matz averages 3.9 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 8 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.