Inside Edge
Tampa Bay Rays71.4% BBA O 1.566.7% ER O 1.562.5% K O 2.5
Season
All Steven Matz propsProps — 20268 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
8g50%Over: 4-4
1vs O 1.5-139
vs
Orioles5/20
Orioles5/20✗✗✓✓✗✓✗✓
H: 66.7%(3)A: 66.7%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(14%)
Total Matchups
7Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Matz's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 1.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Tyler Mahle
5/3Left-handed starters have an ERA of 3.20 against the Giants since last season.
★★★★★vs Parker Messick
4/27Current Guardians hitters have struck out 26.7% of the time against pitchers similar to Matz over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
★★★★★vs Chase Burns
4/21Current Reds hitters are batting .229 against left-handers who rely heavily on the slider like like Matz over the the last two years.
Game Log
Bet
$
5-7 Over8g · 12 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -139 |
| 5/3 | vs Giants | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +118 |
| 4/27 | @ Guardians | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -170 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/21 | vs Reds | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +124 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -175 |
| 4/16 | @ White Sox | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/10 | vs Yankees | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +126 |
| 4/10 | vsYankees | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -174 |
| 4/4 | @ Twins | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -173 |
| 4/4 | @Twins | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +128 |
| 3/29 | @ Cardinals | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -157 |
Tampa Bay Rays Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on earned runs 1.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on earned runs 1.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 4-2 with an average actual of 2.3.
Is Steven Matz over 1.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 8 games in 2026, betting $100 on Steven Matz over 1.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$163 (-20.37% ROI). The hit rate is 66.7% with an average actual of 2.3.
What is Steven Matz's earned runs average this season?
Steven Matz averages 2.3 earned runs per game in 2026 across 8 games. The primary line is set at 1.5.