Tampa Bay Rays66.7% BBA O 1.550% K O 2.550% OUT O 15.5
Season
All Steven Matz propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
10g40%Over: 4-6
5vs O 2.5+120
vs
Tigers6/2
Tigers6/2✓✓✗✗✗✓✗✗✗✓
H: 50%(4)A: 25%(4)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.5★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(5%)
Total Matchups
22Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Matz's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Seth Lugo
6/25Current Royals are batting .417 in their last 24 AB's against Matz.
★★★★★vs Noah Cameron
6/24Current Royals are batting .417 in their last 24 AB's against Matz.
★★★★★vs Luinder Avila
6/23Current Royals are batting .364 in their last 11 AB's against Matz.
Game Log
Bet
$
8-7 Over10g · 15 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2 | vsTigers | O 1.5 | 5 | W | -153 |
| 6/2 | vsTigers | O 2.5 | 5 | W | +120 |
| 5/27 | @ Orioles | O 2.5 | 6 | W | +103 |
| 5/20 | vsOrioles | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -139 |
| 5/3 | vs Giants | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +118 |
| 4/27 | @ Guardians | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -170 |
| 4/27 | @Guardians | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/21 | vs Reds | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +124 |
| 4/21 | vsReds | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -175 |
| 4/16 | @ White Sox | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/10 | vs Yankees | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +126 |
| 4/10 | vsYankees | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -174 |
| 4/4 | @ Twins | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -173 |
| 4/4 | @Twins | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +128 |
| 3/29 | @ Cardinals | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -157 |
Tampa Bay Rays Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Steven Matz hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Steven Matz hits the over on earned runs 2.5 37.5% of the time in 2026, going 3-5 with an average actual of 2.9.
Is Steven Matz over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Steven Matz over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$189 (-18.9% ROI). The hit rate is 37.5% with an average actual of 2.9.
What is Steven Matz's earned runs average this season?
Steven Matz averages 2.9 earned runs per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge