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Players/MLB/Boston Red Sox/Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle

Payton Tolle

Boston Red Sox•Pitcher•2026
3.28ERA134K117.9IP10.2K/921G
3.28ERA134K117.9IP10.2K/921G
60% ER O 1.558.3% OUT O 17.552.4% BBA O 1.5
Season
Best Performer

Payton Tolle goes over 1.5 earned runs 60% of the time (9-6-1)

Props — 202622 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

22g
avg 6.1
47.6%Over: 10-11-1
6vs O 6.5+162
vsDiamondbacks8/19
✗✗✓✓✓✓✓✗✗✓
H: 50%(12)A: 40%(10)

Earned Runs

22g
avg 2
52.4%Over: 11-10-1
3vs O 1.5-155
vsDiamondbacks8/19
✓✗✗✗✗✓✗✗✓✗
H: 55.6%(9)A: 57.1%(7)

Hits Allowed

22g
avg 4.5
42.9%Over: 9-12-1
6vs O 4.5-129
vsDiamondbacks8/19
✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✗✓✗
H: 50%(10)A: 33.3%(9)

Walks Allowed

22g
avg 1.5
52.4%Over: 11-10-1
2vs O 1.5+123
vsDiamondbacks8/19
✓✓✗✓✗✗✗✗✓✓
H: 58.3%(12)A: 40%(10)

Outs Recorded

21g
avg 17.1
61.9%Over: 13-8
15vs O 17.5-108
vsDiamondbacks8/19
✗✓✓✓✗✓✗✓✗✓
H: 40%(5)A: 71.4%(7)
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
3.2★★★★★
5-Star Games
3(14%)
Total Matchups
21
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Tolle's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 6.5Earned RunsO 1.5Hits AllowedO 4.5Walks AllowedO 1.5Outs RecordedO 17.5
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)100%(2-0)66.7%(2-1)66.7%(2-1)50%(1-1)
★★★★★50%(4-4)60%(3-2)83.3%(5-1)75%(6-2)60%(3-2)
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)33.3%(1-2)0%(0-3)66.7%(2-1)100%(1-0)
★★★★★25%(1-3)66.7%(2-1)25%(1-3)0%(0-4)100%(2-0)
★★★★★66.7%(2-1)50%(1-1)0%(0-2)33.3%(1-2)0%(0-2)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Brandon Pfaadt
8/19

Diamondbacks hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Tolle.

★★★★★vs Max Scherzer
8/13

Left-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Tolle have an ERA of 4.45 against the Blue Jays since last year.

★★★★★vs Jack Perkins
8/7

Current Athletics hitters have an OPS of .654 against hard-throwing left-handed pitchers like Tolle over the last two years.

Game Log

Bet
$
172-158-12 Over342 props
Date ↓OppMarketLineActualResultOdds
8/19vsDiamondbacksHits AllowedO 4.56W-129
8/19vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 17.515L-108
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 5.56W-124
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 6.56L+162
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 3.56W-573
8/19vsDiamondbacksWalks AllowedO 1.52W+123
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 2.56W-1700
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 1.56W—
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 7.56L+340
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 4.56W-253
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 8.56L+680
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 9.56L+1060
8/19vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 16.515L—
8/19vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 10.56L—
8/19vsDiamondbacksEarned RunsO 1.53W-155
8/19vsDiamondbacksEarned RunsO 2.53W+130
8/19vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 20.515L—
8/19vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 14.515W—
8/19vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 1715L—
8/13@Blue JaysHits AllowedO 4.52L-105
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 5.54L-128
8/13@Blue JaysOuts RecordedO 17.524W+104
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 3.54W-700
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 4.54L-295
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 2.54W-3900
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 6.54L+154
8/13@Blue JaysEarned RunsO 1.50L-165
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 7.54L+320
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 9.54L+1220
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 1.54W—
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 10.54L—
8/13@Blue JaysPitcher KsO 8.54L+630
8/13@Blue JaysOuts RecordedO 14.524W—
8/13@Blue JaysOuts RecordedO 20.524W—
8/13@Blue JaysWalks AllowedO 1.52W+123
8/13@Blue JaysEarned RunsO 2.50L—
8/13@Blue JaysOuts RecordedO 16.524W—
8/7vsAthleticsOuts RecordedO 17.518W-172
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 6.514W-132
8/7vsAthleticsEarned RunsO 1.51L-130
8/7vsAthleticsHits AllowedO 5.52L—
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 9.514W+576
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 8.514W+290
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 4.514W-600
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 5.514W-275
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 7.514W+144
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 3.514W-2600
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 2.514W—
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 1.514W—
8/7vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 10.514W+1140

Boston Red Sox Teammates

View all
Wilyer AbreuWillson ContrerasJarren DuranCeddanne RafaelaCaleb DurbinAdley RutschmanMasataka YoshidaCurtis MeadAndruw MonasterioConnor WongMarcelo MayerAnthony SeiglerEli WhiteJake RogersTrevor Story

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Payton Tolle hit the over on pitcher ks 6.5?
Payton Tolle hits the over on pitcher ks 6.5 47.6% of the time in 2026, going 10-11-1 with an average actual of 6.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$985.
How often does Payton Tolle hit the over on earned runs 1.5?
Payton Tolle hits the over on earned runs 1.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 9-6-1 with an average actual of 1.8. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$20.
How often does Payton Tolle hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Payton Tolle hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 44.4% of the time in 2026, going 8-10-1 with an average actual of 4.5. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$229.
How often does Payton Tolle hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Payton Tolle hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 52.4% of the time in 2026, going 11-10-1 with an average actual of 1.5. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$459.
How often does Payton Tolle hit the over on outs recorded 17.5?
Payton Tolle hits the over on outs recorded 17.5 58.3% of the time in 2026, going 7-5 with an average actual of 16.8. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$142.
What are Payton Tolle's best prop bets in 2026?
Payton Tolle's highest-hitting props in 2026: Earned Runs O 1.5 at 60% (9-6); Outs Recorded O 17.5 at 58.3% (7-5); Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 52.4% (11-10).

Payton Tolle 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.22 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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