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Players/MLB/Boston Red Sox/Payton Tolle/Earned Runs
Payton Tolle

Payton Tolle

Boston Red Sox•Pitcher•2026
3.28ERA134K117.9IP10.2K/921G
3.28ERA134K117.9IP10.2K/921G
60% ER O 1.558.3% OUT O 17.552.4% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Payton Tolle props

Props — 202622 games with closing lines

Earned Runs

22g
avg 2
52.4%Over: 11-10-1
3vs O 1.5-155
vsDiamondbacks8/19
✓✗✗✗✗✓✗✗✓✗
H: 55.6%(9)A: 57.1%(7)
SeasonalityAll lines
50%
67%
75%
0%
33%
Apr
1-1
May
4-2
Jun
3-1
Jul
0-1
Aug
1-2
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
3.2★★★★★
5-Star Games
3(14%)
Total Matchups
21
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Tolle's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 6.5Earned RunsO 1.5Hits AllowedO 4.5Walks AllowedO 1.5Outs RecordedO 17.5
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)100%(2-0)66.7%(2-1)66.7%(2-1)50%(1-1)
★★★★★50%(4-4)60%(3-2)83.3%(5-1)75%(6-2)60%(3-2)
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)33.3%(1-2)0%(0-3)66.7%(2-1)100%(1-0)
★★★★★25%(1-3)66.7%(2-1)25%(1-3)0%(0-4)100%(2-0)
★★★★★66.7%(2-1)50%(1-1)0%(0-2)33.3%(1-2)0%(0-2)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Brandon Pfaadt
8/19

Diamondbacks hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Tolle.

★★★★★vs Max Scherzer
8/13

Left-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Tolle have an ERA of 4.45 against the Blue Jays since last year.

★★★★★vs Jack Perkins
8/7

Current Athletics hitters have an OPS of .654 against hard-throwing left-handed pitchers like Tolle over the last two years.

Game Log

Bet
$
16-15-2 Over22g · 33 props
Date ↓OppLineActualResultOdds
8/19vsDiamondbacksO 1.53W-155
8/19vsDiamondbacksO 2.53W+130
8/13@Blue JaysO 1.50L-165
8/13@Blue JaysO 2.50L—
8/7vsAthleticsO 1.51L-130
8/7vsAthleticsO 2.51L+130
8/1@DodgersO 2.52L-105
7/27@AthleticsO 2.52L+126
7/20vsOriolesO 2.54W+114
7/12@MetsO 2.51L—
7/12@MetsO 1.51L-155
7/7@White SoxO 2.50L+113
7/1vsNationalsO 2.56W-110
6/26vsYankeesO 2.50L+104
6/21@MarinersO 1.53W-158
6/21@MarinersO 2.53W+130
6/16vsBlue JaysO 2.53W+125
6/16vsBlue JaysO 1.53W-185
6/9@RaysO 1.54W-156
6/9@RaysO 2.54W+120
6/3vsOriolesO 1.50L-175
5/28vsBravesO 1.52W-145
5/22vsTwinsO 1.53W-130
5/16@BravesO 1.52W-168
5/10vsRaysO 1.53W-158
5/9vsRaysO 1.50P-142
5/9vsRaysO 2.50P+130
5/4@TigersO 2.50L+115
5/4@TigersO 1.50L-154
4/28@Blue JaysO 1.53W-154
4/28@Blue JaysO 2.53W+127
4/23vsYankeesO 2.51L+127
4/23vsYankeesO 1.51L-175

Boston Red Sox Teammates

View all
Wilyer AbreuWillson ContrerasCeddanne RafaelaJarren DuranCaleb DurbinAdley RutschmanMasataka YoshidaAndruw MonasterioCurtis MeadConnor WongMarcelo MayerAnthony SeiglerEli WhiteJake RogersTrevor Story

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Payton Tolle hit the over on earned runs 1.5?
Payton Tolle hits the over on earned runs 1.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 9-6-1 with an average actual of 1.8.
Is Payton Tolle over 1.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 22 games in 2026, betting $100 on Payton Tolle over 1.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$215 (-9.77% ROI). The hit rate is 60% with an average actual of 1.8.
What is Payton Tolle's earned runs average this season?
Payton Tolle averages 1.8 earned runs per game in 2026 across 22 games. The primary line is set at 1.5.

Payton Tolle 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.22 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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