Seth Lugo

Kansas City RoyalsPitcher•2026

Reg4.28 ERA / 76 K / 94.7 IP / 7.2 K/9 / 17G

64.3% BBA O 1.554.5% OUT O 17.547.1% K O 4.5

Season

Best Performer

Seth Lugo goes over 2.5 pitcher ks 87.5% of the time (14-2-1)

Props — 202618 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

18g

avg 4.2

47.1%Over: 8-9-1

7vs O 4.5+164

Rays7/1

✓✗✗✗✗✓✗✓✗✓

H: 50%(10)A: 42.9%(7)

Earned Runs

18g

avg 2.5

35.3%Over: 6-11-1

3vs O 3.5+108

Rays7/1

✗✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✓✓

H: 33.3%(9)A: 42.9%(7)

Hits Allowed

18g

avg 5.7

58.8%Over: 10-7-1

9vs O 6.5+106

Rays7/1

✓✓✗✗✓✓✓✗✓✓

H: 25%(8)A: 80%(5)

Walks Allowed

16g

avg 1.8

56.3%Over: 9-7

0vs O 1.5-151

Rays7/1

✗✓✓✗✗✗✓✓✗✓

H: 77.8%(9)A: 40%(5)

Outs Recorded

14g

avg 16.8

64.3%Over: 9-5

18vs O 16.5-101

Rays7/1

✓✗✓✗✗✓✓✓✗✗

H: 66.7%(6)A: 40%(5)

Inside Edge

Star Ratings

Avg Rating

3.4★★★★★

5-Star Games

7(39%)

Total Matchups

Distribution

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Lugo's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

Stars	Pitcher KsO 4.5	Earned RunsO 2.5	Hits AllowedO 5.5	Walks AllowedO 1.5	Outs RecordedO 17.5
★★★★★	50%(4-4)	37.5%(3-5)	50%(3-3)	83.3%(5-1)	80%(4-1)
★★★★★	0%(0-2)	50%(1-1)	0%(0-1)	0%(0-1)	0%(0-2)
★★★★★	66.7%(2-1)	0%(0-3)	50%(1-1)	66.7%(2-1)	100%(2-0)
★★★★★	33.3%(1-2)	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)	66.7%(2-1)	0%(0-1)
★★★★★	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)	50%(1-1)	0%(0-1)	0%(0-1)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Cionel Pérez

7/7

Mets hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Lugo.

★★★★★vs Shane McClanahan

7/1

Pitchers with similar repertoires to Lugo have an ERA of 4.50 against the Rays over the last year.

★★★★★vs Casey Legumina

6/25

Current Rays hitters have struck out just 17.1% of the time against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).

Game Log

Bet

85-122-10 Over217 props

Date ↓	Opp	Market	Line	Actual	Result	Odds
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	7	W	-374
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	7	W	+363
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	7	W	-144
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	7	W	+164
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	7	W	+800
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	7	W	-1300
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	7	L	+1700
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	7	L	—
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	7	L	—
7/1	vsRays	Hits Allowed	O 6.5	9	W	+106
7/1	vsRays	Earned Runs	O 3.5	3	L	+108
7/1	vsRays	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	0	L	-151
7/1	vsRays	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	18	W	-138
7/1	vsRays	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	18	W	-101
7/1	vsRays	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	7	W	—
6/25	@Rays	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	15	L	-104
6/25	@Rays	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	7	W	+100
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	3	L	-200
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	3	L	+240
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	3	W	-500
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	3	L	+520
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	3	L	+116
6/25	@Rays	Earned Runs	O 2.5	7	W	-104
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	3	W	-1820
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	3	L	+940
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	3	L	—
6/25	@Rays	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	3	L	—
6/25	@Rays	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	2	W	-137
6/25	@Rays	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	15	L	-135
6/19	vsCardinals	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	18	W	-118
6/19	vsCardinals	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	5	L	-135
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	0	L	+129
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	0	L	-450
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	0	L	+620
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	0	L	+1380
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	0	L	+287
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	0	L	-175
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	0	L	-1640
6/19	vsCardinals	Earned Runs	O 2.5	1	L	-109
6/19	vsCardinals	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	3	W	-103
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	0	L	—
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	0	L	—
6/19	vsCardinals	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	0	L	—
6/19	vsCardinals	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	18	W	—
6/10	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	2	L	+492
6/10	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	2	L	+227
6/10	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	2	L	-218
6/10	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	2	L	-564
6/10	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	2	L	+1040
6/10	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	2	L	+106

Kansas City Royals Teammates

View all

Bobby Witt Jr.Isaac Collins Carter Jensen Salvador Perez Jac Caglianone Maikel Garcia Michael Massey Vinnie Pasquantino Lane Thomas Kyle Isbel Nick Loftin Starling Marte Jonathan India Kameron Misner Tyler Tolbert

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on pitcher ks 4.5?

Seth Lugo hits the over on pitcher ks 4.5 47.1% of the time in 2026, going 8-9-1 with an average actual of 4.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$140.

How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on earned runs 2.5?

Seth Lugo hits the over on earned runs 2.5 37.5% of the time in 2026, going 6-10-1 with an average actual of 2.5. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$457.

How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?

Seth Lugo hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 46.2% of the time in 2026, going 6-7 with an average actual of 5.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$166.

How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?

Seth Lugo hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 64.3% of the time in 2026, going 9-5 with an average actual of 1.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$113.

How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on outs recorded 17.5?

Seth Lugo hits the over on outs recorded 17.5 54.5% of the time in 2026, going 6-5 with an average actual of 16.4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$60.

What are Seth Lugo's best prop bets in 2026?

Seth Lugo's highest-hitting props in 2026: Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 64.3% (9-5); Outs Recorded O 17.5 at 54.5% (6-5); Pitcher Ks O 4.5 at 47.1% (8-9).