Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals85.7% BBA O 1.566.7% HA O 4.566.7% OUT O 17.5
Season
Best Performer
Seth Lugo goes over 2.5 pitcher ks 100% of the time (9-0-1)
Props — 202611 games with closing lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
5(50%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lugo's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(3-3) | 33.3%(2-4) | 25%(1-3) | 100%(4-0) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-3) | 100%(2-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — | — | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Sonny Gray
5/18Current Red Sox hitters are batting .284 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Noah Schultz
5/13Current White Sox hitters are batting .231 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.
★★★★★
5/7Guardians hitters have a 1.5 star average matchup against Lugo.
Game Log
Bet
$
50-62-10 Over122 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Market | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/18 | vs Red Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 5 | W | -3200 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -115 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 18 | W | -145 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 5 | L | +750 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -255 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -690 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 5 | L | +1360 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +370 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +182 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Hits Allowed | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +121 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -128 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 5 | L | -135 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -111 |
| 5/13 | @ White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +101 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 4 | W | -500 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 4 | L | +430 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 4 | L | +220 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -1600 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -210 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 9.5 | 4 | L | +1620 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 4 | L | +830 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 15 | L | -111 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Walks Allowed | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +132 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Hits Allowed | O 4.5 | 8 | W | -157 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -110 |
| 5/7 | vs Guardians | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 5 | L | +1000 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +247 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -499 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +117 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -193 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +520 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 12 | L | -138 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 5 | W | -1860 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 5 | L | +1680 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 7 | W | -105 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -133 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Outs Recorded | O 18.5 | 12 | L | +128 |
| 5/7 | vsGuardians | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -194 |
| 5/2 | @ Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +120 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -1600 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 6 | W | -375 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -165 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 6 | L | +230 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 6 | L | +430 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 6 | L | +760 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -110 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 7 | W | +101 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 18 | W | -161 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Pitcher Ks | O 9.5 | 6 | L | +1400 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | Hits Allowed | O 4.5 | 7 | W | -160 |
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on pitcher ks 4.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on pitcher ks 4.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 6-4-1 with an average actual of 4.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$116.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on earned runs 2.5 30% of the time in 2026, going 3-7-1 with an average actual of 2.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$424.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 4-2-1 with an average actual of 5.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$54.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 85.7% of the time in 2026, going 6-1 with an average actual of 2.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$291.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on outs recorded 17.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on outs recorded 17.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 4-2 with an average actual of 17.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$106.
What are Seth Lugo's best prop bets in 2026?
Seth Lugo's highest-hitting props in 2026: Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 85.7% (6-1); Hits Allowed O 4.5 at 66.7% (4-2); Outs Recorded O 17.5 at 66.7% (4-2).