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Players/MLB/Kansas City Royals/Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo

Kansas City Royals•Pitcher•2026
4.78ERA111K143IP7.0K/926G
4.78ERA111K143IP7.0K/926G
65.2% BBA O 1.555.6% OUT O 16.547.6% HA O 5.5
Season
Best Performer

Seth Lugo goes over 1.5 walks allowed 65.2% of the time (15-8)

Props — 202627 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

27g
avg 4.1
42.3%Over: 11-15-1
3vs O 4.5+125
vsAthletics8/19
✗✗✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✓
H: 50%(14)A: 33.3%(12)

Earned Runs

27g
avg 2.8
46.2%Over: 12-14-1
5vs O 2.5+105
vsAthletics8/19
✓✓✓✓✗✓✗✗✓✗
H: 46.2%(13)A: 45.5%(11)

Hits Allowed

27g
avg 5.7
53.8%Over: 14-12-1
9vs O 5.5-123
vsAthletics8/19
✓✓✗✗✓✗✗✗✓✓
H: 25%(12)A: 77.8%(9)

Walks Allowed

25g
avg 1.8
60%Over: 15-10
0vs O 1.5+119
vsAthletics8/19
✗✗✗✓✓✓✓✓✓✗
H: 69.2%(13)A: 60%(10)

Outs Recorded

23g
avg 16.6
60.9%Over: 14-9
18vs O 17.5-174
vsAthletics8/19
✓✗✓✗✓✓✓✗✗✓
H: 80%(5)A: 25%(4)
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
3.2★★★★★
5-Star Games
8(31%)
Total Matchups
26
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Lugo's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 4.5Earned RunsO 2.5Hits AllowedO 5.5Walks AllowedO 1.5Outs RecordedO 16.5
★★★★★44.4%(4-5)44.4%(4-5)57.1%(4-3)71.4%(5-2)—
★★★★★0%(0-3)33.3%(1-2)50%(1-1)50%(1-1)50%(1-1)
★★★★★50%(2-2)25%(1-3)66.7%(2-1)50%(2-2)—
★★★★★50%(4-4)57.1%(4-3)28.6%(2-5)75%(6-2)66.7%(4-2)
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)50%(1-1)50%(1-1)50%(1-1)0%(0-1)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Jeffrey Springs
8/19

Current Athletics hitters have struck out 23.2% of the time against pitchers similar to Lugo over the last two years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Athletics.

★★★★★vs Grayson Rodriguez
8/14

Angels hitters have a 1.5 star average matchup against Lugo.

★★★★★vs Clay Holmes
8/8

Current Cubs hitters have an OPS of .832 against bottom-tier right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.

Game Log

Bet
$
146-219-10 Over375 props
Date ↓OppMarketLineActualResultOdds
8/19vsAthleticsOuts RecordedO 18.518L—
8/19vsAthleticsEarned RunsO 2.55W+105
8/19vsAthleticsHits AllowedO 5.59W-123
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 4.53L+125
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 3.53L-165
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 6.53L+600
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 1.53W-2500
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 7.53L+1200
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 5.53L+255
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 2.53W-450
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 8.53L—
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 9.53L—
8/19vsAthleticsOuts RecordedO 17.518W-174
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 53L—
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 10.53L—
8/19vsAthleticsHits AllowedO 6.59W+105
8/19vsAthleticsOuts RecordedO 23.518L—
8/19vsAthleticsWalks AllowedO 1.50L+119
8/19vsAthleticsOuts RecordedO 14.518W—
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 0.53W—
8/19vsAthleticsPitcher KsO 43L—
8/19vsAthleticsOuts RecordedO 20.518L—
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 6.54L+340
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 5.54L+166
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 7.54L+750
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 2.54W-780
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 3.54W-290
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 4.54L-126
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 8.54L+1440
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 1.54W-3600
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 9.54L—
8/14@AngelsHits AllowedO 5.57W+105
8/14@AngelsEarned RunsO 2.55W+104
8/14@AngelsOuts RecordedO 17.514L-115
8/14@AngelsWalks AllowedO 1.50L-161
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 10.54L—
8/14@AngelsPitcher KsO 54L—
8/14@AngelsOuts RecordedO 20.514L—
8/14@AngelsOuts RecordedO 14.514L—
8/8vsCubsEarned RunsO 2.53W-157
8/8vsCubsOuts RecordedO 17.518W-108
8/8vsCubsHits AllowedO 6.55L—
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 3.55W-180
8/8vsCubsHits AllowedO 5.55L-145
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 6.55L+610
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 5.55L+280
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 2.55W-450
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 1.55W-1720
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 7.55L+1320
8/8vsCubsPitcher KsO 4.55W+130

Kansas City Royals Teammates

View all
Carter JensenIsaac CollinsSalvador PerezJac CaglianoneBobby Witt Jr.Michael MasseyNick LoftinVinnie PasquantinoLane ThomasMaikel GarciaKyle IsbelStarling MarteTyler TolbertJosh RojasJohn Rave

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on pitcher ks 4.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on pitcher ks 4.5 42.3% of the time in 2026, going 11-15-1 with an average actual of 4.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$413.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on earned runs 2.5 45.8% of the time in 2026, going 11-13-1 with an average actual of 2.7. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$328.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 47.6% of the time in 2026, going 10-11 with an average actual of 5.4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$219.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 65.2% of the time in 2026, going 15-8 with an average actual of 1.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$388.
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on outs recorded 16.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on outs recorded 16.5 55.6% of the time in 2026, going 5-4 with an average actual of 15.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$45.
What are Seth Lugo's best prop bets in 2026?
Seth Lugo's highest-hitting props in 2026: Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 65.2% (15-8); Outs Recorded O 16.5 at 55.6% (5-4); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 47.6% (10-11).

Seth Lugo 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.27 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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