Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals85.7% BBA O 1.566.7% HA O 4.566.7% OUT O 17.5
Season
All Seth Lugo propsProps — 202611 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
11g50%Over: 5-5-1
5vs O 5.5-135
vs
Red Sox5/18
Red Sox5/18✗✓✓✓P✓✗✗✗✗
H: 33.3%(3)A: 100%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
5(50%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lugo's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(3-3) | 33.3%(2-4) | 25%(1-3) | 100%(4-0) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-3) | 100%(2-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — | — | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Sonny Gray
5/18Current Red Sox hitters are batting .284 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Noah Schultz
5/13Current White Sox hitters are batting .231 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.
★★★★★
5/7Guardians hitters have a 1.5 star average matchup against Lugo.
Game Log
Bet
$
6-8-1 Over10g · 15 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +121 |
| 5/18 | vsRed Sox | O 5.5 | 5 | L | -135 |
| 5/13 | @ White Sox | O 4.5 | 8 | W | -157 |
| 5/7 | vs Guardians | O 5.5 | 7 | W | -105 |
| 5/2 | @ Mariners | O 5.5 | 7 | W | +101 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | O 4.5 | 7 | W | -160 |
| 4/26 | vs Angels | O 4.5 | 14 | W | -160 |
| 4/26 | vsAngels | O 4.5 | 0 | P | -155 |
| 4/20 | vs Orioles | O 4.5 | 1 | L | -149 |
| 4/20 | vsOrioles | O 5.5 | 1 | L | +100 |
| 4/15 | @ Tigers | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +105 |
| 4/9 | vsWhite Sox | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +109 |
| 4/4 | vs Brewers | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +123 |
| 4/4 | vsBrewers | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -154 |
| 3/29 | @ Braves | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -160 |
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 4-2-1 with an average actual of 5.6.
Is Seth Lugo over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 11 games in 2026, betting $100 on Seth Lugo over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$151 (-13.73% ROI). The hit rate is 66.7% with an average actual of 5.6.
What is Seth Lugo's hits allowed average this season?
Seth Lugo averages 5.6 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 11 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.