Kansas City Royals64.3% BBA O 1.554.5% OUT O 17.547.1% K O 4.5
Season
All Seth Lugo propsProps — 202618 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
18g35.3%Over: 6-11-1
3vs O 3.5+108
vs
Rays7/1
Rays7/1✗✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✓✓
H: 33.3%(9)A: 42.9%(7)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
7(39%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lugo's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(4-4) | 37.5%(3-5) | 50%(3-3) | 83.3%(5-1) | 80%(4-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-2) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-3) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Cionel Pérez
7/7Mets hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Lugo.
★★★★★vs Shane McClanahan
7/1Pitchers with similar repertoires to Lugo have an ERA of 4.50 against the Rays over the last year.
★★★★★vs Casey Legumina
6/25Current Rays hitters have struck out just 17.1% of the time against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
Game Log
Bet
$
6-12-1 Over17g · 19 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | vsRays | O 3.5 | 3 | L | +108 |
| 6/25 | @Rays | O 2.5 | 7 | W | -104 |
| 6/19 | vs Cardinals | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -109 |
| 6/10 | vs Rangers | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -165 |
| 6/10 | vsRangers | O 3.5 | 1 | L | +122 |
| 6/4 | @ Twins | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -116 |
| 5/30 | @Rangers | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -109 |
| 5/24 | vs Mariners | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -118 |
| 5/18 | vs Red Sox | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -128 |
| 5/13 | @ White Sox | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -110 |
| 5/7 | vs Guardians | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -133 |
| 5/2 | @Mariners | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -110 |
| 4/26 | vs Angels | O 2.5 | 7 | W | +110 |
| 4/26 | vsAngels | O 2.5 | 0 | P | -105 |
| 4/20 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +105 |
| 4/15 | @ Tigers | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -127 |
| 4/9 | vsWhite Sox | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +100 |
| 4/4 | vs Brewers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +116 |
| 3/29 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -118 |
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on earned runs 2.5 37.5% of the time in 2026, going 6-10-1 with an average actual of 2.5.
Is Seth Lugo over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 18 games in 2026, betting $100 on Seth Lugo over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$557 (-30.94% ROI). The hit rate is 37.5% with an average actual of 2.5.
What is Seth Lugo's earned runs average this season?
Seth Lugo averages 2.5 earned runs per game in 2026 across 18 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge