Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals85.7% BBA O 1.566.7% HA O 4.566.7% OUT O 17.5
Season
All Seth Lugo propsProps — 202611 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
11g30%Over: 3-7-1
2vs O 2.5-128
vs
Red Sox5/18
Red Sox5/18✗✓✓✗P✓✗✗✗✗
H: 33.3%(6)A: 25%(4)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
5(50%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lugo's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(3-3) | 33.3%(2-4) | 25%(1-3) | 100%(4-0) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-3) | 100%(2-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — | — | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Sonny Gray
5/18Current Red Sox hitters are batting .284 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Noah Schultz
5/13Current White Sox hitters are batting .231 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Lugo over the last two years.
★★★★★
5/7Guardians hitters have a 1.5 star average matchup against Lugo.
Game Log
Bet
$
3-7-1 Over10g · 11 props
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Seth Lugo hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Seth Lugo hits the over on earned runs 2.5 30% of the time in 2026, going 3-7-1 with an average actual of 2.2.
Is Seth Lugo over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 11 games in 2026, betting $100 on Seth Lugo over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$424 (-38.55% ROI). The hit rate is 30% with an average actual of 2.2.
What is Seth Lugo's earned runs average this season?
Seth Lugo averages 2.2 earned runs per game in 2026 across 11 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.