Mitch Keller

Pittsburgh PiratesPitcher•2026

Reg5.38 ERA / 74 K / 98.7 IP / 6.7 K/9 / 18G

66.7% OUT O 16.556.3% ER O 2.553.3% HA O 5.5

Season

Best Performer

Mitch Keller goes over 2.5 pitcher ks 94.1% of the time (16-1)

Props — 202618 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

18g

avg 4.1

33.3%Over: 6-12

1vs O 4.5+162

Nationals7/3

✗✗✗✓✗✗✓✓✗✗

H: 30%(10)A: 37.5%(8)

Earned Runs

18g

avg 3.3

61.1%Over: 11-7

5vs O 3.5+103

Nationals7/3

✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✓

H: 60%(10)A: 50%(6)

Hits Allowed

18g

avg 5.5

50%Over: 9-9

8vs O 5.5-155

Nationals7/3

✓✗✓✗✓✓✓✗✗✓

H: 66.7%(9)A: 33.3%(6)

Outs Recorded

18g

avg 16.7

61.1%Over: 11-7

18vs O 16.5-110

Nationals7/3

✓✓✓✓✗✗✗✓✗✗

H: 80%(5)A: 50%(4)

Walks Allowed

17g

avg 1.9

41.2%Over: 7-10

0vs O 1.5-122

Nationals7/3

✗✗✗✓✓✓✗✓✗✗

H: 33.3%(9)A: 57.1%(7)

Inside Edge

Star Ratings

Avg Rating

2.9★★★★★

5-Star Games

4(22%)

Total Matchups

Distribution

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Keller's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

Stars	Pitcher KsO 4.5	Earned RunsO 2.5	Hits AllowedO 5.5	Outs RecordedO 16.5	Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★	50%(2-2)	25%(1-3)	66.7%(2-1)	100%(2-0)	33.3%(1-2)
★★★★★	0%(0-4)	75%(3-1)	50%(2-2)	50%(1-1)	50%(2-2)
★★★★★	100%(1-0)	0%(0-1)	0%(0-1)	100%(1-0)	0%(0-1)
★★★★★	50%(2-2)	50%(2-2)	50%(1-1)	0%(0-1)	66.7%(2-1)
★★★★★	20%(1-4)	100%(3-0)	60%(3-2)	66.7%(2-1)	40%(2-3)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Foster Griffin

7/3

Nationals hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Keller.

★★★★★vs Brady Singer

6/28

Several hitters in the Reds lineup have a 5-star matchup against Keller today.

★★★★★vs George Kirby

6/23

Mariners hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Keller.

Game Log

Bet

100-121 Over221 props

Date ↓	Opp	Market	Line	Actual	Result	Odds
7/3	@Nationals	Earned Runs	O 3.5	5	W	+103
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	1	L	-147
7/3	@Nationals	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	0	L	-122
7/3	@Nationals	Hits Allowed	O 6.5	8	W	+101
7/3	@Nationals	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	18	W	-110
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	1	L	—
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	1	L	+800
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	1	L	+1740
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	1	L	-1420
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	1	L	-385
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	1	L	—
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	1	L	+162
7/3	@Nationals	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	1	L	+359
7/3	@Nationals	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	8	W	-155
6/28	vsReds	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	5	L	-120
6/28	vsReds	Earned Runs	O 2.5	3	W	-122
6/28	vsReds	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	18	W	—
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	4	L	+134
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	4	W	-325
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	4	L	+610
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	4	W	-900
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	4	L	+283
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	4	L	-155
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	4	L	+1300
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	4	W	—
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	4	L	—
6/28	vsReds	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	18	W	-118
6/28	vsReds	Pitcher Ks	O 10.5	4	L	—
6/28	vsReds	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	1	L	-138
6/23	vsMariners	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	18	W	-105
6/23	vsMariners	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	7	W	+104
6/23	vsMariners	Earned Runs	O 2.5	3	W	-119
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	4	L	-105
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	4	L	—
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	4	L	+469
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	4	L	+212
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	4	L	+1020
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	4	W	-3000
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	4	W	-225
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	4	W	-600
6/23	vsMariners	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	4	L	—
6/23	vsMariners	Hits Allowed	O 4.5	7	W	—
6/23	vsMariners	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	1	L	-160
6/16	@Athletics	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	7	W	+131
6/16	@Athletics	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	7	W	+292
6/16	@Athletics	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	7	W	-447
6/16	@Athletics	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	7	W	+630
6/16	@Athletics	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	7	W	-175
6/16	@Athletics	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	7	W	-1660
6/16	@Athletics	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	16	W	+115

Pittsburgh Pirates Teammates

View all

Bryan Reynolds Brandon Lowe Nick Gonzales Ryan O'Hearn Marcell Ozuna Oneil Cruz Henry Davis Spencer Horwitz Konnor Griffin Jake Mangum Jared Triolo Joey Bart Tyler Callihan Esmerlyn Valdez Nick Yorke

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on pitcher ks 4.5?

Mitch Keller hits the over on pitcher ks 4.5 33.3% of the time in 2026, going 6-12 with an average actual of 4.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$523.

How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on earned runs 2.5?

Mitch Keller hits the over on earned runs 2.5 56.3% of the time in 2026, going 9-7 with an average actual of 3.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$149.

How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?

Mitch Keller hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 53.3% of the time in 2026, going 8-7 with an average actual of 5.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$57.

How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on outs recorded 16.5?

Mitch Keller hits the over on outs recorded 16.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 6-3 with an average actual of 17.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$73.

How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?

Mitch Keller hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 43.8% of the time in 2026, going 7-9 with an average actual of 1.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$392.

What are Mitch Keller's best prop bets in 2026?

Mitch Keller's highest-hitting props in 2026: Outs Recorded O 16.5 at 66.7% (6-3); Earned Runs O 2.5 at 56.3% (9-7); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 53.3% (8-7).