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Players/MLB/Pittsburgh Pirates/Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller

Pittsburgh Pirates•Pitcher•2026
5.62ERA89K113.8IP7.0K/922G
5.62ERA89K113.8IP7.0K/922G
55.6% OUT O 15.555% ER O 2.552.6% HA O 5.5
Season
Best Performer

Mitch Keller goes over 15.5 outs recorded 55.6% of the time (5-4)

Props — 202622 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

22g
avg 4
31.8%Over: 7-15
2vs O 4.5-130
@Reds8/2
✗✗✓✗✗✗✗✓✗✗
H: 25%(12)A: 40%(10)

Earned Runs

22g
avg 3.2
59.1%Over: 13-9
7vs O 2.5-106
@Reds8/2
✓✗✗✓✓✓✓✓✓✓
H: 58.3%(12)A: 50%(8)

Hits Allowed

22g
avg 5.4
50%Over: 11-11
6vs O 5.5
@Reds8/2
✓✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✓✓
H: 63.6%(11)A: 37.5%(8)

Outs Recorded

22g
avg 15.8
54.5%Over: 12-10
6vs O 15.5+112
@Reds8/2
✗✓✗✗✓✓✓✓✗✗
H: 75%(4)A: 40%(5)

Walks Allowed

20g
avg 2
50%Over: 10-10
4vs O 1.5-149
@Reds8/2
✓✓✓✗✗✗✓✓✓✗
H: 40%(10)A: 66.7%(9)
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
2.7★★★★★
5-Star Games
4(18%)
Total Matchups
22
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Keller's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 4.5Earned RunsO 2.5Hits AllowedO 5.5Outs RecordedO 15.5Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★50%(2-2)25%(1-3)66.7%(2-1)100%(1-0)33.3%(1-2)
★★★★★0%(0-4)75%(3-1)50%(2-2)—50%(2-2)
★★★★★33.3%(1-2)33.3%(1-2)66.7%(2-1)50%(1-1)50%(1-1)
★★★★★50%(2-2)50%(2-2)50%(1-1)33.3%(1-2)66.7%(2-1)
★★★★★28.6%(2-5)80%(4-1)42.9%(3-4)66.7%(2-1)57.1%(4-3)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Chase Burns
8/2

Current Reds hitters have struck out 23.2% of the time against pitchers similar to Keller over the last two years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Reds.

★★★★★vs Merrill Kelly
7/27

Pitchers with similar repertoires to Keller have an ERA of 4.37 against the Diamondbacks over the last year.

★★★★★vs Gerrit Cole
7/22

Pitchers with similar repertoires to Keller have an ERA of 5.06 against the Yankees over the last year.

Game Log

Bet
$
128-162-1 Over291 props
Date ↓OppMarketLineActualResultOdds
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 2.52L-870
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 7.52L+750
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 6.52L+361
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 4.52L-130
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 3.52L-302
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 5.52L+170
8/2@RedsEarned RunsO 2.57W-106
8/2@RedsOuts RecordedO 15.56L+112
8/2@RedsHits AllowedO 5.56W—
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 1.52W—
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 9.52L—
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 10.52L—
8/2@RedsPitcher KsO 8.52L+1540
8/2@RedsWalks AllowedO 1.54W-149
8/2@RedsOuts RecordedO 14.56L-161
8/2@RedsHits AllowedO 4.56W-136
8/2@RedsHits AllowedO 56W—
8/2@RedsOuts RecordedO 11.56L—
8/2@RedsOuts RecordedO 20.56L—
7/27vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 15.516W+130
7/27vsDiamondbacksEarned RunsO 2.52L-115
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 3.54W-147
7/27vsDiamondbacksHits AllowedO 4.56W—
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 6.54L+860
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 5.54L+375
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 7.54L—
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 2.54W-399
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 1.54W-1520
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 4.54L+162
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 8.54L—
7/27vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 14.516W—
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 9.54L—
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 0.54W—
7/27vsDiamondbacksPitcher KsO 44P—
7/27vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 20.516L—
7/27vsDiamondbacksOuts RecordedO 11.516W—
7/27vsDiamondbacksHits AllowedO 5.56W—
7/22@YankeesOuts RecordedO 15.515L+122
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 4.56W+115
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 7.56L+1200
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 6.56L+557
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 1.56W-2300
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 3.56W-200
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 2.56W-500
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 5.56W+254
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 8.56L—
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 9.56L—
7/22@YankeesHits AllowedO 4.53L—
7/22@YankeesEarned RunsO 2.50L-156
7/22@YankeesPitcher KsO 0.56W—

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on pitcher ks 4.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on pitcher ks 4.5 31.8% of the time in 2026, going 7-15 with an average actual of 4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$708.
How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on earned runs 2.5 55% of the time in 2026, going 11-9 with an average actual of 3.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$106.
How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 52.6% of the time in 2026, going 10-9 with an average actual of 5.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$143.
How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on outs recorded 15.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on outs recorded 15.5 55.6% of the time in 2026, going 5-4 with an average actual of 14.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$153.
How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 52.6% of the time in 2026, going 10-9 with an average actual of 2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$150.
What are Mitch Keller's best prop bets in 2026?
Mitch Keller's highest-hitting props in 2026: Outs Recorded O 15.5 at 55.6% (5-4); Earned Runs O 2.5 at 55% (11-9); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 52.6% (10-9).

Mitch Keller 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.22 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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