Inside Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates66.7% OUT O 16.557.1% HA O 4.540% ER O 2.5
Season
All Mitch Keller propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
10g40%Over: 4-6
4vs O 2.5+105
@
Cardinals5/19
Cardinals5/19✓✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✗✗
H: 33.3%(6)A: 50%(4)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.8★★★★★
5-Star Games
3(30%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Keller's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Outs RecordedO 16.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 0%(0-3) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-4) | 75%(3-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Matthew Liberatore
5/19Cardinals hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Keller.
★★★★★vs Jose Quintana
5/13Current Rockies hitters have struck out 25.3% of the time against pitchers similar to Keller over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
★★★★★vs Zac Gallen
5/7Right-handed starters have an ERA of 3.28 against the Diamondbacks in the past 30 days.
Game Log
Bet
$
5-7 Over10g · 12 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19 | @Cardinals | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +105 |
| 5/13 | vs Rockies | O 2.5 | 6 | W | +125 |
| 5/13 | vsRockies | O 1.5 | 6 | W | -168 |
| 5/7 | @ Diamondbacks | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -123 |
| 5/1 | vs Reds | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -102 |
| 4/25 | @ Brewers | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +101 |
| 4/19 | vs Rays | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +115 |
| 4/14 | vs Nationals | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -103 |
| 4/8 | vs Padres | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +121 |
| 4/8 | vsPadres | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -171 |
| 4/3 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 3/28 | @ Mets | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +110 |
Pittsburgh Pirates Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on earned runs 2.5 40% of the time in 2026, going 4-6 with an average actual of 2.5.
Is Mitch Keller over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Mitch Keller over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$172 (-17.2% ROI). The hit rate is 40% with an average actual of 2.5.
What is Mitch Keller's earned runs average this season?
Mitch Keller averages 2.5 earned runs per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.