Pittsburgh Pirates66.7% OUT O 16.556.3% ER O 2.553.3% HA O 5.5
Season
All Mitch Keller propsProps — 202618 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
18g61.1%Over: 11-7
5vs O 3.5+103
@
Nationals7/3
Nationals7/3✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✓
H: 60%(10)A: 50%(6)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
4(22%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Keller's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Outs RecordedO 16.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 25%(1-3) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) | 33.3%(1-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-4) | 75%(3-1) | 50%(2-2) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 50%(2-2) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 20%(1-4) | 100%(3-0) | 60%(3-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 40%(2-3) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Foster Griffin
7/3Nationals hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Keller.
★★★★★vs Brady Singer
6/28Several hitters in the Reds lineup have a 5-star matchup against Keller today.
★★★★★vs George Kirby
6/23Mariners hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Keller.
Game Log
Bet
$
13-8 Over18g · 21 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/3 | @Nationals | O 3.5 | 5 | W | +103 |
| 6/28 | vs Reds | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -122 |
| 6/23 | vs Mariners | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -119 |
| 6/16 | @ Athletics | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +101 |
| 6/11 | vs Dodgers | O 3.5 | 5 | W | +117 |
| 6/11 | vsDodgers | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -165 |
| 6/5 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -119 |
| 5/30 | vs Twins | O 2.5 | 7 | W | +110 |
| 5/24 | @ Blue Jays | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -125 |
| 5/19 | @ Cardinals | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +105 |
| 5/13 | vs Rockies | O 2.5 | 6 | W | +125 |
| 5/13 | vsRockies | O 1.5 | 6 | W | -168 |
| 5/7 | @ Diamondbacks | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -123 |
| 5/1 | vsReds | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -102 |
| 4/25 | @ Brewers | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +101 |
| 4/19 | vs Rays | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +115 |
| 4/14 | vsNationals | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -103 |
| 4/8 | vs Padres | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +121 |
| 4/8 | vsPadres | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -171 |
| 4/3 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 3/28 | @ Mets | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +110 |
Pittsburgh Pirates Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Mitch Keller hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Mitch Keller hits the over on earned runs 2.5 56.3% of the time in 2026, going 9-7 with an average actual of 3.1.
Is Mitch Keller over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 18 games in 2026, betting $100 on Mitch Keller over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$353 (+19.61% ROI). The hit rate is 56.3% with an average actual of 3.1.
What is Mitch Keller's earned runs average this season?
Mitch Keller averages 3.1 earned runs per game in 2026 across 18 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge