Connelly Early

Boston Red Sox•Pitcher•2026

3.54ERA93K89.1IP9.4K/917G

64.3% HA O 4.564.3% BBA O 1.547.1% K O 5.5

Season

Best Performer

Connelly Early goes over 4.5 hits allowed 64.3% of the time (9-5)

Props — 202617 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

17g

avg 5.5

47.1%Over: 8-9

5vs O 5.5-118

Nationals6/30

✗✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✓✓

H: 44.4%(9)A: 50%(8)

Earned Runs

17g

avg 2.1

41.2%Over: 7-10

0vs O 2.5+104

Nationals6/30

✗✗✗✓✗✓✗✓✗✗

H: 50%(8)A: 25%(4)

Hits Allowed

17g

avg 4.8

58.8%Over: 10-7

3vs O 5.5+120

Nationals6/30

✗✓✗✓✓✓✗✓✓✗

H: 66.7%(6)A: 62.5%(8)

Outs Recorded

17g

avg 16.2

47.1%Over: 8-9

12vs O 16.5-118

Nationals6/30

✗✓✓✗✗✗✓✓✗✓

H: 40%(5)A: 40%(5)

Walks Allowed

16g

avg 2.1

62.5%Over: 10-6

2vs O 1.5+107

Nationals6/30

✓✗✓✓✓✗✓✗✗✗

H: 62.5%(8)A: 66.7%(6)

Inside Edge

Star Ratings

Avg Rating

3.6★★★★★

5-Star Games

4(24%)

Total Matchups

Distribution

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Early's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

Stars	Pitcher KsO 5.5	Earned RunsO 2.5	Hits AllowedO 4.5	Outs RecordedO 16.5	Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★	0%(0-4)	100%(3-0)	100%(3-0)	50%(1-1)	75%(3-1)
★★★★★	83.3%(5-1)	25%(1-3)	60%(3-2)	60%(3-2)	66.7%(4-2)
★★★★★	25%(1-3)	0%(0-2)	33.3%(1-2)	0%(0-2)	100%(2-0)
★★★★★	100%(2-0)	0%(0-2)	50%(1-1)	0%(0-1)	0%(0-2)
★★★★★	0%(0-1)	100%(1-0)	100%(1-0)	—	—

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Cade Cavalli

6/30

Left-handed starters have an ERA of 3.34 against the Nationals since last season, but other matchup data favors the Nationals.

★★★★★vs Cam Schlittler

6/25

Current Yankees hitters have struck out 25.6% of the time against pitchers similar to Early over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).

★★★★★vs Emerson Hancock

6/20

Current Mariners hitters are batting .244 against pitchers with a similar repertoire to like Early over the the last two years.

Game Log

Bet

112-119 Over231 props

Date ↓	Opp	Market	Line	Actual	Result	Odds
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	5	L	-118
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	5	L	+750
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	5	W	-275
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	5	W	-2900
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	5	W	-650
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	5	L	+370
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	5	L	+182
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	5	L	+1180
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	5	W	—
6/30	vsNationals	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	12	L	+105
6/30	vsNationals	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	3	L	+120
6/30	vsNationals	Earned Runs	O 2.5	0	L	+104
6/30	vsNationals	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	2	W	+107
6/30	vsNationals	Pitcher Ks	O 10.5	5	L	—
6/30	vsNationals	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	12	L	-118
6/25	vsYankees	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	18	W	-108
6/25	vsYankees	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	5	L	+115
6/25	vsYankees	Earned Runs	O 2.5	2	L	-104
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	9	W	-2200
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	9	W	+730
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	9	W	-600
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	9	W	+410
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	9	W	—
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	9	W	+220
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	9	L	+1460
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	9	W	+102
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	9	W	-235
6/25	vsYankees	Hits Allowed	O 4.5	5	W	—
6/25	vsYankees	Pitcher Ks	O 10.5	9	L	—
6/25	vsYankees	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	1	L	-117
6/25	vsYankees	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	18	W	—
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	7	W	-130
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	7	W	-700
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	7	W	-2500
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	7	W	+155
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	7	L	+302
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	7	L	+610
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	7	W	-281
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 10.5	7	L	—
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	7	L	+1180
6/20	@Mariners	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	7	W	—
6/20	@Mariners	Hits Allowed	O 4.5	2	L	-120
6/20	@Mariners	Outs Recorded	O 17.5	18	W	+114
6/20	@Mariners	Earned Runs	O 2.5	1	L	+118
6/20	@Mariners	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	2	W	-176
6/20	@Mariners	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	2	L	+123
6/20	@Mariners	Outs Recorded	O 16.5	18	W	-110
6/14	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	3	W	-1340
6/14	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	3	L	+453
6/14	vsRangers	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	3	L	+920

Boston Red Sox Teammates

View all

Wilyer Abreu Willson Contreras Jarren Duran Ceddanne Rafaela Caleb Durbin Marcelo Mayer Masataka Yoshida Andruw Monasterio Connor Wong Trevor Story Mickey Gasper Anthony Seigler Isiah Kiner-Falefa Roman Anthony Jahmai Jones

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Connelly Early hit the over on pitcher ks 5.5?

Connelly Early hits the over on pitcher ks 5.5 47.1% of the time in 2026, going 8-9 with an average actual of 5.5. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$132.

How often does Connelly Early hit the over on earned runs 2.5?

Connelly Early hits the over on earned runs 2.5 41.7% of the time in 2026, going 5-7 with an average actual of 2.3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$108.

How often does Connelly Early hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?

Connelly Early hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 64.3% of the time in 2026, going 9-5 with an average actual of 4.5. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$182.

How often does Connelly Early hit the over on outs recorded 16.5?

Connelly Early hits the over on outs recorded 16.5 40% of the time in 2026, going 4-6 with an average actual of 16.3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$249.

How often does Connelly Early hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?

Connelly Early hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 64.3% of the time in 2026, going 9-5 with an average actual of 2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$133.

What are Connelly Early's best prop bets in 2026?

Connelly Early's highest-hitting props in 2026: Hits Allowed O 4.5 at 64.3% (9-5); Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 64.3% (9-5); Pitcher Ks O 5.5 at 47.1% (8-9).