Season
All Connelly Early propsProps — 202617 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
17g41.2%Over: 7-10
0vs O 2.5+104
vs
Nationals6/30
Nationals6/30✗✗✗✓✗✓✗✓✗✗
H: 50%(8)A: 25%(4)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.6★★★★★
5-Star Games
4(24%)
Total Matchups
17Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Early's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 5.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Outs RecordedO 16.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-4) | 100%(3-0) | 100%(3-0) | 50%(1-1) | 75%(3-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 83.3%(5-1) | 25%(1-3) | 60%(3-2) | 60%(3-2) | 66.7%(4-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 25%(1-3) | 0%(0-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 0%(0-2) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-2) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Cade Cavalli
6/30Left-handed starters have an ERA of 3.34 against the Nationals since last season, but other matchup data favors the Nationals.
★★★★★vs Cam Schlittler
6/25Current Yankees hitters have struck out 25.6% of the time against pitchers similar to Early over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
★★★★★vs Emerson Hancock
6/20Current Mariners hitters are batting .244 against pitchers with a similar repertoire to like Early over the the last two years.
Game Log
Bet
$
11-10 Over17g · 21 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30 | vsNationals | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +104 |
| 6/25 | vs Yankees | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -104 |
| 6/20 | @ Mariners | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +118 |
| 6/14 | vs Rangers | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -115 |
| 6/8 | @ Rays | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +117 |
| 6/8 | @Rays | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -167 |
| 6/2 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +131 |
| 6/2 | vsOrioles | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -175 |
| 5/27 | vs Braves | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -105 |
| 5/20 | @ Royals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +130 |
| 5/20 | @Royals | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -173 |
| 5/15 | @Braves | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +122 |
| 5/8 | vsRays | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +117 |
| 5/2 | vs Astros | O 2.5 | 5 | W | +114 |
| 4/26 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -160 |
| 4/21 | vsYankees | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +130 |
| 4/21 | vsYankees | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -168 |
| 4/15 | @ Twins | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -152 |
| 4/10 | @ Cardinals | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -118 |
| 4/4 | vs Padres | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -134 |
| 3/29 | @ Reds | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -140 |
Boston Red Sox Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Connelly Early hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Connelly Early hits the over on earned runs 2.5 41.7% of the time in 2026, going 5-7 with an average actual of 2.3.
Is Connelly Early over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 17 games in 2026, betting $100 on Connelly Early over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$271 (-15.94% ROI). The hit rate is 41.7% with an average actual of 2.3.
What is Connelly Early's earned runs average this season?
Connelly Early averages 2.3 earned runs per game in 2026 across 17 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge