Inside Edge
Boston Red Sox90% K O 3.562.5% OUT O 15.560% HA O 4.5
Season
All Connelly Early propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
10g60%Over: 6-4
6vs O 4.5-153
@
Royals5/20
Royals5/20✓✓✗✓✗✓✗✓✗✓
H: 50%(4)A: 66.7%(6)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
3(30%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Early's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 3.5 | Earned RunsO 1.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(3-0) | 0%(0-2) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-2) | 100%(2-0) | — |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | — | 50%(1-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Michael Wacha
5/20Current Royals hitters are batting .223 against pitchers with a similar repertoire to like Early over the the last two years.
★★★★★vs Spencer Strider
5/15Braves hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Early.
★★★★★vs Jesse Scholtens
5/8Rays hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Early.
Game Log
Bet
$
7-6 Over10g · 13 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | @Royals | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -153 |
| 5/20 | @Royals | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +115 |
| 5/15 | @ Braves | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +106 |
| 5/15 | @Braves | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -155 |
| 5/8 | vs Rays | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -164 |
| 5/8 | vsRays | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +111 |
| 5/2 | vs Astros | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -149 |
| 4/26 | @ Orioles | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -102 |
| 4/21 | vs Yankees | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +110 |
| 4/15 | @ Twins | O 4.5 | 2 | L | +110 |
| 4/10 | @ Cardinals | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +108 |
| 4/4 | vs Padres | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -110 |
| 3/29 | @ Reds | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +125 |
Boston Red Sox Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Connelly Early hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Connelly Early hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 6-4 with an average actual of 4.5.
Is Connelly Early over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Connelly Early over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned +$135 (+13.5% ROI). The hit rate is 60% with an average actual of 4.5.
What is Connelly Early's hits allowed average this season?
Connelly Early averages 4.5 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.