Philadelphia Phillies94.4% K O 2.566.7% ER O 2.564.7% HA O 5.5
Season
Best Performer
Aaron Nola goes over 2.5 pitcher ks 94.4% of the time (17-1)
Props — 202618 games with closing lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.7★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(6%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Nola's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(5-0) | 60%(3-2) | 40%(2-3) | 40%(2-3) | 40%(2-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(3-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 83.3%(5-1) | 83.3%(5-1) | 83.3%(5-1) | 50%(3-3) | 20%(1-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(3-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(3-0) | 0%(0-2) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Luinder Avila
7/5Royals hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Nola.
★★★★★vs Braxton Ashcraft
6/29Current Pirates hitters have an OPS of .834 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Nola over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Carson Palmquist
6/24Nationals hitters have a 4 star average matchup against Nola.
Game Log
Bet
$
108-134 Over242 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Market | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/5 | @ Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 7 | W | -156 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 7 | W | +310 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 7 | W | +148 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 7 | L | +630 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 7 | W | -1000 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 7 | W | -350 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 21 | W | +110 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 7 | W | -105 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -125 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 7 | L | +1220 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 7 | W | — |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 0 | L | -128 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 9.5 | 7 | L | — |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Outs Recorded | O 15.5 | 21 | W | -125 |
| 7/5 | @Royals | Pitcher Ks | O 10.5 | 7 | L | — |
| 6/29 | vs Pirates | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 7 | W | -110 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 5 | L | +700 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 5 | L | +360 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 5 | L | -120 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -600 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -3100 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 5 | W | — |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -115 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 13 | L | +100 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 8 | W | +110 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 9.5 | 5 | L | +1260 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +178 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -250 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 13 | L | +120 |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Pitcher Ks | O 10.5 | 5 | L | — |
| 6/29 | vsPirates | Outs Recorded | O 15.5 | 13 | L | -137 |
| 6/24 | @ Nationals | Outs Recorded | O 16.5 | 15 | L | -115 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Hits Allowed | O 5.5 | 3 | L | -101 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Earned Runs | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -127 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Walks Allowed | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -138 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -122 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -870 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 1.5 | 5 | W | — |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 7.5 | 5 | L | +750 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -310 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +174 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 5 | L | +370 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 8.5 | 5 | L | +1440 |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Outs Recorded | O 17.5 | 15 | L | — |
| 6/24 | @Nationals | Pitcher Ks | O 9.5 | 5 | L | — |
| 6/18 | vs Mets | Pitcher Ks | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -188 |
| 6/18 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +120 |
| 6/18 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 3.5 | 6 | W | -430 |
| 6/18 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 6.5 | 6 | L | +265 |
| 6/18 | vsMets | Pitcher Ks | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -1280 |
Philadelphia Phillies Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on pitcher ks 2.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on pitcher ks 2.5 94.4% of the time in 2026, going 17-1 with an average actual of 5.2. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$18.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on earned runs 2.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 12-6 with an average actual of 3.3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$564.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 64.7% of the time in 2026, going 11-6 with an average actual of 5.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$578.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 55.6% of the time in 2026, going 10-8 with an average actual of 1.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$94.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on outs recorded 17.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on outs recorded 17.5 26.7% of the time in 2026, going 4-11 with an average actual of 15.1. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$682.
What are Aaron Nola's best prop bets in 2026?
Aaron Nola's highest-hitting props in 2026: Pitcher Ks O 2.5 at 94.4% (17-1); Earned Runs O 2.5 at 66.7% (12-6); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 64.7% (11-6).
Inside Edge