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Players/MLB/Philadelphia Phillies/Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

Philadelphia Phillies•Pitcher•2026
5.26ERA146K133.5IP9.8K/926G
5.26ERA146K133.5IP9.8K/926G
61.5% BBA O 1.560% HA O 5.557.7% ER O 2.5
Season
Best Performer

Aaron Nola goes over 1.5 walks allowed 61.5% of the time (16-10)

Props — 202626 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

26g
avg 5.6
42.3%Over: 11-15
8vs O 5.5-126
vsMarlins8/19
✓✓✓✗✗✗✓✓✓✗
H: 46.2%(13)A: 38.5%(13)

Earned Runs

26g
avg 3
57.7%Over: 15-11
1vs O 2.5-125
vsMarlins8/19
✗✗✗✓✗✓✓✗✓✓
H: 69.2%(13)A: 46.2%(13)

Hits Allowed

26g
avg 5.7
61.5%Over: 16-10
5vs O 5.5-105
vsMarlins8/19
✗✗✓✓✗✓✓✗✓✓
H: 83.3%(12)A: 38.5%(13)

Walks Allowed

26g
avg 1.8
61.5%Over: 16-10
0vs O 1.5-143
vsMarlins8/19
✗✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓
H: 61.5%(13)A: 61.5%(13)

Outs Recorded

26g
avg 15.8
42.3%Over: 11-15
21vs O 16.5-132
vsMarlins8/19
✓✗✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✗
H: 40%(5)A: 40%(5)
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
2.6★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(4%)
Total Matchups
26
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Nola's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 5.5Earned RunsO 2.5Hits AllowedO 5.5Walks AllowedO 1.5Outs RecordedO 15.5
★★★★★0%(0-1)0%(0-1)0%(0-1)0%(0-1)—
★★★★★28.6%(2-5)57.1%(4-3)42.9%(3-4)42.9%(3-4)50%(1-1)
★★★★★66.7%(2-1)66.7%(2-1)100%(2-0)66.7%(2-1)0%(0-2)
★★★★★50%(5-5)60%(6-4)70%(7-3)70%(7-3)60%(3-2)
★★★★★40%(2-3)60%(3-2)60%(3-2)80%(4-1)0%(0-1)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Sandy Alcantara
8/19

Marlins hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Nola.

★★★★★vs Taj Bradley
8/13

Current Twins hitters are batting .230 against right-handers who rely heavily on the slider like like Nola over the the last two years.

★★★★★vs Max Scherzer
8/8

Pitchers with similar repertoires to Nola have an ERA of 4.50 against the Blue Jays over the last year.

Game Log

Bet
$
193-193-1 Over387 props
Date ↓OppMarketLineActualResultOdds
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 6.58W+166
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 4.58W-271
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 7.58W+344
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 5.58W-126
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 3.58W-600
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 2.58W-2400
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 8.58L+720
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 1.58W—
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 9.58L+1480
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 10.58L—
8/19vsMarlinsEarned RunsO 2.51L-125
8/19vsMarlinsOuts RecordedO 16.521W-132
8/19vsMarlinsHits AllowedO 4.55W—
8/19vsMarlinsOuts RecordedO 17.521W+105
8/19vsMarlinsHits AllowedO 5.55L-105
8/19vsMarlinsPitcher KsO 68W—
8/19vsMarlinsWalks AllowedO 1.50L-143
8/19vsMarlinsOuts RecordedO 20.521W—
8/19vsMarlinsOuts RecordedO 14.521W—
8/19vsMarlinsOuts RecordedO 1721W—
8/13@TwinsOuts RecordedO 16.515L-103
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 5.59W+135
8/13@TwinsOuts RecordedO 17.515L—
8/13@TwinsHits AllowedO 5.55L+125
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 6.59W+271
8/13@TwinsEarned RunsO 2.51L-108
8/13@TwinsWalks AllowedO 1.53W-108
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 3.59W-329
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 4.59W-149
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 7.59W+540
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 8.59W+1000
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 2.59W-870
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 9.59L—
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 10.59L—
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 1.59W—
8/13@TwinsOuts RecordedO 20.515L—
8/13@TwinsOuts RecordedO 14.515W—
8/13@TwinsPitcher KsO 59W—
8/13@TwinsHits AllowedO 4.55W—
8/13@TwinsOuts RecordedO 15.515L-120
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 5.58W+210
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 3.58W-251
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 4.58W+100
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 2.58W-650
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 6.58W+450
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 9.58L—
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 1.58W-3400
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 8.58L—
8/8vsBlue JaysPitcher KsO 7.58W+960
8/8vsBlue JaysHits AllowedO 5.56W-120

Philadelphia Phillies Teammates

View all
Kyle SchwarberBryce HarperTrea TurnerBrandon MarshLuis ArraezAlec BohmBryson StottJ.T. RealmutoJustin CrawfordEdmundo SosaDerek HillGabriel Rincones Jr.Garrett StubbsBryan De La CruzZack Wheeler

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on pitcher ks 5.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on pitcher ks 5.5 42.3% of the time in 2026, going 11-15 with an average actual of 5.6. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$161.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on earned runs 2.5 57.7% of the time in 2026, going 15-11 with an average actual of 3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$288.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 15-10 with an average actual of 5.7. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$609.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 61.5% of the time in 2026, going 16-10 with an average actual of 1.8. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$211.
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on outs recorded 15.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on outs recorded 15.5 40% of the time in 2026, going 4-6 with an average actual of 15.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$163.
What are Aaron Nola's best prop bets in 2026?
Aaron Nola's highest-hitting props in 2026: Walks Allowed O 1.5 at 61.5% (16-10); Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 60% (15-10); Earned Runs O 2.5 at 57.7% (15-11).

Aaron Nola 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.26 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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