Inside Edge
Philadelphia Phillies90% K O 2.580% ER O 2.566.7% HA O 5.5
Season
All Aaron Nola propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
10g70%Over: 7-3
8vs O 5.5+110
vs
Reds5/20
Reds5/20✓✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✗✓
H: 100%(3)A: 50%(6)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.8★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(10%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Nola's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 100%(2-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 75%(3-1) | 75%(3-1) | 75%(3-1) | 50%(2-2) | 25%(1-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Andrew Abbott
5/20Reds hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Nola.
★★★★★vs Braxton Ashcraft
5/15Current Pirates hitters are batting .273 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Nola over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Kyle Freeland
5/9Rockies hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Nola.
Game Log
Bet
$
9-3 Over10g · 12 props
Philadelphia Phillies Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 6-3 with an average actual of 6.2.
Is Aaron Nola over 5.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Aaron Nola over 5.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned +$458 (+45.8% ROI). The hit rate is 66.7% with an average actual of 6.2.
What is Aaron Nola's hits allowed average this season?
Aaron Nola averages 6.2 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 5.5.