Philadelphia Phillies94.4% K O 2.566.7% ER O 2.564.7% HA O 5.5
Season
All Aaron Nola propsProps — 202618 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
18g66.7%Over: 12-6
3vs O 2.5-125
@
Royals7/5
Royals7/5✓✓✗✗✓✓✗✗✓✓
H: 75%(8)A: 60%(10)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.7★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(6%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Nola's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 2.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(5-0) | 60%(3-2) | 40%(2-3) | 40%(2-3) | 40%(2-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(3-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 83.3%(5-1) | 83.3%(5-1) | 83.3%(5-1) | 50%(3-3) | 20%(1-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(3-0) | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(3-0) | 0%(0-2) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Luinder Avila
7/5Royals hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Nola.
★★★★★vs Braxton Ashcraft
6/29Current Pirates hitters have an OPS of .834 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Nola over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Carson Palmquist
6/24Nationals hitters have a 4 star average matchup against Nola.
Game Log
Bet
$
13-6 Over18g · 19 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/5 | @Royals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -125 |
| 6/29 | vs Pirates | O 2.5 | 7 | W | -110 |
| 6/24 | @ Nationals | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -127 |
| 6/18 | vs Mets | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -140 |
| 6/13 | @ Brewers | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -128 |
| 6/7 | vs White Sox | O 2.5 | 5 | W | +111 |
| 6/2 | vs Padres | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +125 |
| 5/26 | @Padres | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +123 |
| 5/20 | vs Reds | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -117 |
| 5/15 | @Pirates | O 2.5 | 6 | W | +100 |
| 5/9 | vs Rockies | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +115 |
| 5/4 | @ Marlins | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -130 |
| 4/26 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -139 |
| 4/20 | @ Cubs | O 2.5 | 5 | W | +109 |
| 4/14 | vsCubs | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -128 |
| 4/8 | @ Giants | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +115 |
| 4/3 | @Rockies | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -113 |
| 3/28 | vs Rangers | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +129 |
| 3/28 | vsRangers | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -139 |
Philadelphia Phillies Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on earned runs 2.5 66.7% of the time in 2026, going 12-6 with an average actual of 3.3.
Is Aaron Nola over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 18 games in 2026, betting $100 on Aaron Nola over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$564 (+31.33% ROI). The hit rate is 66.7% with an average actual of 3.3.
What is Aaron Nola's earned runs average this season?
Aaron Nola averages 3.3 earned runs per game in 2026 across 18 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge