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Players/MLB/Philadelphia Phillies/Aaron Nola/Earned Runs
Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

Philadelphia Phillies•Pitcher•2026
5.26ERA146K133.5IP9.8K/926G
5.26ERA146K133.5IP9.8K/926G
61.5% BBA O 1.560% HA O 5.557.7% ER O 2.5
Season
All Aaron Nola props

Props — 202626 games with closing lines

Earned Runs

26g
avg 3
57.7%Over: 15-11
1vs O 2.5-125
vsMarlins8/19
✗✗✗✓✗✓✓✗✓✓
H: 69.2%(13)A: 46.2%(13)
SeasonalityAll lines
100%
80%
60%
50%
60%
25%
Mar
1-0
Apr
4-1
May
3-2
Jun
3-3
Jul
3-2
Aug
1-3
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
2.6★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(4%)
Total Matchups
26
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Nola's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 5.5Earned RunsO 2.5Hits AllowedO 5.5Walks AllowedO 1.5Outs RecordedO 15.5
★★★★★0%(0-1)0%(0-1)0%(0-1)0%(0-1)—
★★★★★28.6%(2-5)57.1%(4-3)42.9%(3-4)42.9%(3-4)50%(1-1)
★★★★★66.7%(2-1)66.7%(2-1)100%(2-0)66.7%(2-1)0%(0-2)
★★★★★50%(5-5)60%(6-4)70%(7-3)70%(7-3)60%(3-2)
★★★★★40%(2-3)60%(3-2)60%(3-2)80%(4-1)0%(0-1)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Sandy Alcantara
8/19

Marlins hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Nola.

★★★★★vs Taj Bradley
8/13

Current Twins hitters are batting .230 against right-handers who rely heavily on the slider like like Nola over the the last two years.

★★★★★vs Max Scherzer
8/8

Pitchers with similar repertoires to Nola have an ERA of 4.50 against the Blue Jays over the last year.

Game Log

Bet
$
17-11 Over26g · 28 props
Date ↓OppLineActualResultOdds
8/19vsMarlinsO 2.51L-125
8/13@TwinsO 2.51L-108
8/8vsBlue JaysO 2.52L-105
8/3vsNationalsO 2.53W-115
7/28@MarlinsO 2.51L-120
7/22vsDodgersO 2.55W-165
7/22vsDodgersO 3.55W+121
7/16vsMetsO 2.53W-130
7/10@TigersO 2.52L-118
7/5@RoyalsO 2.53W-125
6/29vsPiratesO 2.57W-110
6/24@NationalsO 2.52L-127
6/18vsMetsO 2.52L-140
6/13@BrewersO 2.53W-128
6/7vsWhite SoxO 2.55W+111
6/2vsPadresO 2.52L+125
5/26@PadresO 2.52L+123
5/20vsRedsO 2.54W-117
5/15@PiratesO 2.56W+100
5/9vsRockiesO 2.53W+115
5/4@MarlinsO 2.50L-130
4/26@BravesO 2.56W-139
4/20@CubsO 2.55W+109
4/14vsCubsO 2.53W-128
4/8@GiantsO 2.53W+115
4/3@RockiesO 2.51L-113
3/28vsRangersO 2.53W+129
3/28vsRangersO 1.53W-139

Philadelphia Phillies Teammates

View all
Kyle SchwarberBryce HarperTrea TurnerBrandon MarshLuis ArraezAlec BohmBryson StottJ.T. RealmutoJustin CrawfordEdmundo SosaDerek HillGabriel Rincones Jr.Garrett StubbsBryan De La CruzZack Wheeler

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Aaron Nola hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Aaron Nola hits the over on earned runs 2.5 57.7% of the time in 2026, going 15-11 with an average actual of 3.
Is Aaron Nola over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 26 games in 2026, betting $100 on Aaron Nola over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$288 (+11.08% ROI). The hit rate is 57.7% with an average actual of 3.
What is Aaron Nola's earned runs average this season?
Aaron Nola averages 3 earned runs per game in 2026 across 26 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.

Aaron Nola 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.26 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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