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Maple Leafs 2, Lightning 4 — Feb 25, 2026 Recap

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 2-4 on Feb 25, 2026.

Game FAQ — score, spread, and total

Who won Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning on Feb 25, 2026?

Tampa Bay Lightning won 2-4 on Feb 25, 2026.

See methodology for grading rules and ROI calculation.

NHLWED, FEB 25, 20266:30 PM CT
AwayMaple Leafs2
Final
HomeLightning4

Betting Results

Spread
Lightning covered
Lightning -1.5
Total
Under
6 / 6.5
Moneyline
Lightning
-225
Loading probability

Pre-Game Notes3 notes

TOR
Rest advantage
+2 days off
TOR
Won 3 straight
Maple Leafs on heater
TBL
Won 5 straight
Lightning on heater

Key Performers

Maple Leafs
Jake McCabe
Jake McCabeCold82g
0.3PTSL5 0.2
0.1G0.2A22mTOI
vs Lightning0PTS4g
Morgan Rielly
Morgan RiellyCold80g
0.5PTSL5 0.2
0.1G0.3A21mTOI
vs Lightning0.3PTS4g
Auston Matthews
Auston MatthewsCold61g
0.9PTSL5 0.2
0.4G0.4A20mTOI
vs Lightning0.5PTS4g
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Oliver Ekman-LarssonCold79g
0.5PTSL5 0.2
0.1G0.4A20mTOI
vs Lightning0PTS4g
Troy Stecher
Troy Stecher60g
0.2PTS
0.1G0.2A19mTOI
vs Lightning0PTS4g
Goalie
Joseph Woll
Joseph WollCold62g
.897SV%3.45GAA
L5 .825 SV% · 3.68 GAA
Lightning
Darren Raddysh
Darren RaddyshCold80g
0.9PTSL5 0.4
0.3G0.6A22mTOI
vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g
J.J. Moser
J.J. MoserHot86g
0.4PTSL5 0.6
0.1G0.3A21mTOI
vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g
Jake Guentzel
Jake GuentzelHot88g
1.1PTSL5 1.6
0.5G0.7A20mTOI
vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g
Nikita Kucherov
Nikita KucherovCold83g
1.7PTSL5 1.2
0.6G1.1A20mTOI
vs Maple Leafs2.8PTS4g
Brandon Hagel
Brandon HagelHot77g
1.1PTSL5 1.4
0.6G0.5A20mTOI
vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g
Goalie
Jonas Johansson
Jonas JohanssonCold86g
.883SV%3.31GAA
L5 .000 SV% · 0 GAA

ScoringSeason · per game

GPG
Scored
OPP
Allowed
MARGIN
Per game
Maple Leafs
3.3
3.4
-0.1
Lightning
3.6★
2.5★
+1.1★
Edge
Lightning +0.3
Lightning +0.9
Lightning +1.2
Last 10 · Trend
Maple Leafs
3.0avg
Lightning
3.9avg

Head-to-Head2025-26 · 1 games

Maple Leafs1
VS
Lightning0
Dec 8
Lightning0@2Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs +2

Recent FormLast 10

Straight-Up
Maple LeafsW3
4-640%
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
LightningW5
8-280%
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
Against the Spread
Maple Leafs
3-730%
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
Lightning
5-550%
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W

Season Records2025-26 · 57g / 55g

Team
SU
ATS
O/U
Maple Leafs
Overall
47%27-30
42%24-33
58%33-24
Lightning
Overall
67%37-18
51%28-27
51%28-27

Matchup VenueRoad / Home splits

Team
SU
ATS
O/U
Maple Leafs
On Road
42%11-15
46%12-14
58%15-11
Lightning
At Home
67%18-9
37%10-17
52%14-13

Player Prop Results24 players · 60 props

John Tavares
John TavaresToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
GoalsO 0.5
1✓
Shots on GoalO 1.5
3✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
1✓
William Nylander
William NylanderToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 2.5
4✓
AssistsO 0.5
2✓
PointsO 0.5
2✓
Darren Raddysh
Darren RaddyshTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
Shots on GoalO 2.5
3✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Oliver BjorkstrandTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
Shots on GoalO 1.5
4✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Nikita Kucherov
Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
Shots on GoalO 3.5
2✗
AssistsO 1.5
2✓
PointsO 1.5
3✓
Victor Hedman
Victor HedmanTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
Shots on GoalO 1.5
1✗
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Bobby McMann
Bobby McMannToronto Maple Leafs
3 props
Shots on GoalO 1.5
3✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Morgan Rielly
Morgan RiellyToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
Shots on GoalO 1.5
3✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Matthew Knies
Matthew KniesToronto Maple Leafs
3 props
Shots on GoalO 1.5
3✓
AssistsO 0.5
1✓
PointsO 0.5
2✓
Brayden Point
Brayden PointTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
Shots on GoalO 2.5
5✓
AssistsO 0.5
1✓
PointsO 0.5
3✓
Auston Matthews
Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs
3 props
Shots on GoalO 3.5
2✗
AssistsO 0.5
1✓
PointsO 0.5
1✓
Brandon Hagel
Brandon HagelTampa Bay Lightning
4 props
Shots on GoalO 3.5
4✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 2.5
4✓
PointsO 1.5
0✗
Jake Guentzel
Jake GuentzelTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
Shots on GoalO 2.5
5✓
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 1.5
0✗
Yanni Gourde
Yanni GourdeTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
3✓
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Max Domi
Max DomiToronto Maple Leafs
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
2✓
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Matias Maccelli
Matias MaccelliToronto Maple Leafs
2 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Oliver Ekman-LarssonToronto Maple Leafs
2 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Pontus Holmberg
Pontus HolmbergTampa Bay Lightning
1 prop
Shots on GoalO 1.5
0✗
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Andrei VasilevskiyTampa Bay Lightning
1 prop
SavesO 22.5
32✓
Anthony Stolarz
Anthony StolarzToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
SavesO 26.5
32✓
Jake McCabe
Jake McCabeToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 2.5
3✓
Brandon Carlo
Brandon CarloToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
3✓
Ryan McDonagh
Ryan McDonaghTampa Bay Lightning
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
1✗
Simon Benoit
Simon BenoitToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
1✗

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