Who won Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning on Feb 25, 2026?

Tampa Bay Lightning won 2-4 on Feb 25, 2026.

Maple Leafs 2, Lightning 4 — Feb 25, 2026 Recap

NHLWED, FEB 25, 20266:30 PM CDT

Away

Maple LeafsToronto Maple Leafs2

Final

Home

LightningTampa Bay Lightning4

Betting Results

Spread

Lightning covered

Lightning -1.5

Total

Under

6 / 6.5

Moneyline

Lightning

-225

Loading probability

Pre-Game Notes3 notes

TOR

Rest advantage

+2 days off

TOR

Won 3 straight

Maple Leafs on heater

TBL

Won 5 straight

Lightning on heater

Key Performers

Maple Leafs

Jake McCabeCold82g

0.3PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.2A22mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Morgan RiellyCold80g

0.5PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

vs Lightning0.3PTS4g

Auston MatthewsCold61g

0.9PTSL5 0.2

0.4G0.4A20mTOI

vs Lightning0.5PTS4g

Oliver Ekman-LarssonCold79g

0.5PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.4A20mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Troy Stecher60g

0.2PTS

0.1G0.2A19mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Goalie

Joseph WollCold62g

.897SV%3.45GAA

L5 .825 SV% · 3.68 GAA

Lightning

Darren RaddyshCold80g

0.9PTSL5 0.4

0.3G0.6A22mTOI

vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g

J.J. MoserHot86g

0.4PTSL5 0.6

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g

Jake GuentzelHot88g

1.1PTSL5 1.6

0.5G0.7A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g

Nikita KucherovCold83g

1.7PTSL5 1.2

0.6G1.1A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs2.8PTS4g

Brandon HagelHot77g

1.1PTSL5 1.4

0.6G0.5A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g

Goalie

Jonas JohanssonCold86g

.883SV%3.31GAA

L5 .000 SV% · 0 GAA

ScoringSeason · per game

Team

GPG

Scored

OPP

Allowed

MARGIN

Per game

Maple Leafs

3.3★

3.4★

-0.1★

Lightning

3.6★

2.5★

+1.1★

Edge

Lightning +0.3

Lightning +0.9

Lightning +1.2

Last 10 · Trend

Maple Leafs

3.0avg

Lightning

3.9avg

Head-to-Head2025-26 · 1 games

Maple Leafs1

Lightning0

Dec 8

Lightning0@2Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs +2

Recent FormLast 10

Straight-Up

Maple LeafsW3

4-640%

LightningW5

8-280%

Against the Spread

Maple Leafs

3-730%

Lightning

5-550%

Season Records2025-26 · 57g / 55g

Team

ATS

O/U

Maple Leafs

Overall

47%27-30

42%24-33

58%33-24

Lightning

Overall

67%37-18

51%28-27

Matchup VenueRoad / Home splits

Team

ATS

O/U

Maple Leafs

On Road

42%11-15

46%12-14

58%15-11

Lightning

At Home

67%18-9

37%10-17

52%14-13

Player Prop Results24 players · 60 props

Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

2✗

Bobby McMannToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Brandon HagelTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 1.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

4✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

4✓

Brayden PointTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

3✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

5✓

Darren RaddyshTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

3✓

Jake GuentzelTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 1.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

5✓

John TavaresToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Matias MaccelliToronto Maple Leafs

2 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Matthew KniesToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Max DomiToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

2✓

Morgan RiellyToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 1.5

2✓

PointsO 1.5

3✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

2✗

Oliver BjorkstrandTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

4✓

Oliver Ekman-LarssonToronto Maple Leafs

2 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Victor HedmanTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

William NylanderToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

2✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

4✓

Yanni GourdeTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Brandon CarloToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

3✓

Jake McCabeToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 2.5

3✓

Ryan McDonaghTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

1✗

Simon BenoitToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

1✗

Pontus HolmbergTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

Shots on GoalO 1.5

0✗

Andrei VasilevskiyTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

SavesO 22.5

32✓

Anthony StolarzToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

SavesO 26.5

32✓

EV Picks

NHLWED, FEB 25, 20266:30 PM CDT

Away

Maple LeafsToronto Maple Leafs2

Final

Home

LightningTampa Bay Lightning4

Betting Results

Spread

Lightning covered

Lightning -1.5

Total

Under

6 / 6.5

Moneyline

Lightning

-225

Loading probability

Pre-Game Notes3 notes

TOR

Rest advantage

+2 days off

TOR

Won 3 straight

Maple Leafs on heater

TBL

Won 5 straight

Lightning on heater

Key Performers

Maple Leafs

Jake McCabeCold82g

0.3PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.2A22mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Morgan RiellyCold80g

0.5PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

vs Lightning0.3PTS4g

Auston MatthewsCold61g

0.9PTSL5 0.2

0.4G0.4A20mTOI

vs Lightning0.5PTS4g

Oliver Ekman-LarssonCold79g

0.5PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.4A20mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Troy Stecher60g

0.2PTS

0.1G0.2A19mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Goalie

Joseph WollCold62g

.897SV%3.45GAA

L5 .825 SV% · 3.68 GAA

Lightning

Darren RaddyshCold80g

0.9PTSL5 0.4

0.3G0.6A22mTOI

vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g

J.J. MoserHot86g

0.4PTSL5 0.6

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g

Jake GuentzelHot88g

1.1PTSL5 1.6

0.5G0.7A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g

Nikita KucherovCold83g

1.7PTSL5 1.2

0.6G1.1A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs2.8PTS4g

Brandon HagelHot77g

1.1PTSL5 1.4

0.6G0.5A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g

Goalie

Jonas JohanssonCold86g

.883SV%3.31GAA

L5 .000 SV% · 0 GAA

ScoringSeason · per game

Team

GPG

Scored

OPP

Allowed

MARGIN

Per game

Maple Leafs

3.3★

3.4★

-0.1★

Lightning

3.6★

2.5★

+1.1★

Edge

Lightning +0.3

Lightning +0.9

Lightning +1.2

Last 10 · Trend

Maple Leafs

3.0avg

Lightning

3.9avg

Head-to-Head2025-26 · 1 games

Maple Leafs1

Lightning0

Dec 8

Lightning0@2Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs +2

Recent FormLast 10

Straight-Up

Maple LeafsW3

4-640%

LightningW5

8-280%

Against the Spread

Maple Leafs

3-730%

Lightning

5-550%

Season Records2025-26 · 57g / 55g

Team

ATS

O/U

Maple Leafs

Overall

47%27-30

42%24-33

58%33-24

Lightning

Overall

67%37-18

51%28-27

Matchup VenueRoad / Home splits

Team

ATS

O/U

Maple Leafs

On Road

42%11-15

46%12-14

58%15-11

Lightning

At Home

67%18-9

37%10-17

52%14-13

Player Prop Results24 players · 60 props

Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

2✗

Bobby McMannToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Brandon HagelTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 1.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

4✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

4✓

Brayden PointTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

3✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

5✓

Darren RaddyshTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

3✓

Jake GuentzelTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 1.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

5✓

John TavaresToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Matias MaccelliToronto Maple Leafs

2 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Matthew KniesToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Max DomiToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

2✓

Morgan RiellyToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 1.5

2✓

PointsO 1.5

3✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

2✗

Oliver BjorkstrandTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

4✓

Oliver Ekman-LarssonToronto Maple Leafs

2 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Victor HedmanTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

William NylanderToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

2✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

4✓

Yanni GourdeTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

3✓

Brandon CarloToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

3✓

Jake McCabeToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 2.5

3✓

Ryan McDonaghTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

1✗

Simon BenoitToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

1✗

Pontus HolmbergTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

Shots on GoalO 1.5

0✗

Andrei VasilevskiyTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

SavesO 22.5

32✓

Anthony StolarzToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

SavesO 26.5

32✓