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Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 2 — Mar 7, 2026 Recap

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2 on Mar 7, 2026.

Game FAQ — score, spread, and total

Who won Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs on Mar 7, 2026?

Tampa Bay Lightning won 5-2 on Mar 7, 2026.

See methodology for grading rules and ROI calculation.

NHLSAT, MAR 7, 20266:00 PM CT
AwayLightning5
Final
HomeMaple Leafs2

Betting Results

Spread
Lightning covered
Maple Leafs +1.5
Total
Over
7 / 6.5
Moneyline
Lightning
-215
Loading probability

Pre-Game Notes4 notes

TBL
Lost 4 straight
Lightning cold
TBL
Lost ATS 3 straight
Lightning hasn't covered in 3
TOR
Lost 6 straight
Maple Leafs cold
TOR
4 games / 7d
Maple Leafs in a stretch

Key Performers

Lightning
Darren Raddysh
Darren RaddyshCold80g
0.9PTSL5 0.4
0.3G0.6A22mTOI
vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g
J.J. Moser
J.J. MoserHot86g
0.4PTSL5 0.6
0.1G0.3A21mTOI
vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g
Jake Guentzel
Jake GuentzelHot88g
1.1PTSL5 1.6
0.5G0.7A20mTOI
vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g
Nikita Kucherov
Nikita KucherovCold83g
1.7PTSL5 1.2
0.6G1.1A20mTOI
vs Maple Leafs2.8PTS4g
Brandon Hagel
Brandon HagelHot77g
1.1PTSL5 1.4
0.6G0.5A20mTOI
vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g
Goalie
Jonas Johansson
Jonas JohanssonCold86g
.883SV%3.31GAA
L5 .000 SV% · 0 GAA
Maple Leafs
Jake McCabe
Jake McCabeCold82g
0.3PTSL5 0.2
0.1G0.2A22mTOI
vs Lightning0PTS4g
Morgan Rielly
Morgan RiellyCold80g
0.5PTSL5 0.2
0.1G0.3A21mTOI
vs Lightning0.3PTS4g
Auston Matthews
Auston MatthewsCold61g
0.9PTSL5 0.2
0.4G0.4A20mTOI
vs Lightning0.5PTS4g
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Oliver Ekman-LarssonCold79g
0.5PTSL5 0.2
0.1G0.4A20mTOI
vs Lightning0PTS4g
Troy Stecher
Troy Stecher60g
0.2PTS
0.1G0.2A19mTOI
vs Lightning0PTS4g
Goalie
Joseph Woll
Joseph WollCold62g
.897SV%3.45GAA
L5 .825 SV% · 3.68 GAA

ScoringSeason · per game

GPG
Scored
OPP
Allowed
MARGIN
Per game
Lightning
3.5★
2.7★
+0.8★
Maple Leafs
3.2
3.5
-0.3
Edge
Lightning +0.3
Lightning +0.8
Lightning +1.1
Last 10 · Trend
Lightning
3.4avg
Maple Leafs
2.6avg

Recent FormLast 10

Straight-Up
LightningL4
6-460%
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
Maple LeafsL6
3-730%
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
Against the Spread
Lightning3 fail
5-550%
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
Maple Leafs
3-730%
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L

Season Records2025-26 · 60g / 63g

Team
SU
ATS
O/U
Lightning
Overall
63%38-22
50%30-30
50%30-30
Maple Leafs
Overall
43%27-36
40%25-38
57%36-27

Matchup VenueRoad / Home splits

Team
SU
ATS
O/U
Lightning
On Road
61%19-12
61%19-12
48%15-16
Maple Leafs
At Home
48%16-17
36%12-21
58%19-14

Player Prop Results23 players · 64 props

Nikita Kucherov
Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
4✓
Shots on GoalO 3.5
1✗
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 1.5
4✓
Darren Raddysh
Darren RaddyshTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 2.5
5✓
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Jake Guentzel
Jake GuentzelTampa Bay Lightning
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
1✓
Shots on GoalO 2.5
2✗
GoalsO 0.5
1✓
PointsO 0.5
2✓
William Nylander
William NylanderToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
1✓
Shots on GoalO 2.5
2✗
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
1✓
Auston Matthews
Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 3.5
6✓
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Brayden Point
Brayden PointTampa Bay Lightning
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
2✓
Shots on GoalO 2.5
1✗
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
2✓
Brandon Hagel
Brandon HagelTampa Bay Lightning
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
1✓
Shots on GoalO 2.5
3✓
GoalsO 0.5
1✓
PointsO 0.5
2✓
Matthew Knies
Matthew KniesToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
2✓
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
John Tavares
John TavaresToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 2.5
2✗
GoalsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Morgan Rielly
Morgan RiellyToronto Maple Leafs
4 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
1✗
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
2✓
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Oliver BjorkstrandTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 2.5
2✗
PointsO 0.5
1✓
Victor Hedman
Victor HedmanTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
2✓
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Matias Maccelli
Matias MaccelliToronto Maple Leafs
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
1✗
PointsO 0.5
1✓
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Oliver Ekman-LarssonToronto Maple Leafs
2 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Anthony Cirelli
Anthony CirelliTampa Bay Lightning
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
2✓
Shots on GoalO 1.5
5✓
PointsO 0.5
2✓
Max Domi
Max DomiToronto Maple Leafs
3 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
Shots on GoalO 1.5
1✗
PointsO 0.5
0✗
Yanni Gourde
Yanni GourdeTampa Bay Lightning
1 prop
Shots on GoalO 1.5
0✗
Corey Perry
Corey Perry
2 props
AssistsO 0.5
0✗
PointsO 0.5
1✓
Jake McCabe
Jake McCabeToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 2.5
1✗
Brandon Carlo
Brandon CarloToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
1✗
Anthony Stolarz
Anthony StolarzToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
SavesO 27.5
28✓
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Andrei VasilevskiyTampa Bay Lightning
1 prop
SavesO 23.5
27✓
Simon Benoit
Simon BenoitToronto Maple Leafs
1 prop
Blocked ShotsO 1.5
0✗

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