Who won Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs on Mar 7, 2026?

Tampa Bay Lightning won 5-2 on Mar 7, 2026.

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 2 — Mar 7, 2026 Recap

NHLSAT, MAR 7, 20266:00 PM CDT

Away

LightningTampa Bay Lightning5

Final

Home

Maple LeafsToronto Maple Leafs2

Betting results

Spread

Lightning covered

Maple Leafs +1.5

Total

Over

7 / 6.5

Moneyline

Lightning

-215

Probability

Loading probability

Pre-game notes4 notes

Lost 4 straightLightning cold

Lost ATS 3 straightLightning hasn't covered in 3

Lost 6 straightMaple Leafs cold

4 games / 7dMaple Leafs in a stretch

Key performers

Lightning

Darren Raddysh80g0.9PTS

0.3G0.6A22mTOI

Last 5: 0.4 pts·vs Maple Leafs: 0 pts (4g)

J.J. Moser86g0.4PTS

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

Last 5: 0.6 pts·vs Maple Leafs: 0 pts (4g)

Jake Guentzel88g1.1PTS

0.5G0.7A20mTOI

Last 5: 1.6 pts·vs Maple Leafs: 1 pts (4g)

Nikita Kucherov83g1.7PTS

0.6G1.1A20mTOI

Last 5: 1.2 pts·vs Maple Leafs: 2.8 pts (4g)

Brandon Hagel77g1.1PTS

0.6G0.5A20mTOI

Last 5: 1.4 pts·vs Maple Leafs: 1 pts (4g)

Goalie

Jonas JohanssonCold86g

.883SV%3.31GAA

L5 .000 SV% · 0 GAA

Maple Leafs

Jake McCabe82g0.3PTS

0.1G0.2A22mTOI

Last 5: 0.2 pts·vs Lightning: 0 pts (4g)

Morgan Rielly80g0.5PTS

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

Last 5: 0.2 pts·vs Lightning: 0.3 pts (4g)

Auston Matthews61g0.9PTS

0.4G0.4A20mTOI

Last 5: 0.2 pts·vs Lightning: 0.5 pts (4g)

Oliver Ekman-Larsson79g0.5PTS

0.1G0.4A20mTOI

Last 5: 0.2 pts·vs Lightning: 0 pts (4g)

Troy Stecher60g0.2PTS

0.1G0.2A19mTOI

Last 5: 0.2 pts·vs Lightning: 0 pts (4g)

Goalie

Joseph WollCold62g

.897SV%3.45GAA

L5 .825 SV% · 3.68 GAA

ScoringSeason · per game

Team

GPG

Scored

OPP

Allowed

MARGIN

Per game

Lightning

3.5★

2.7★

+0.8★

Maple Leafs

3.2★

3.5★

-0.3★

Edge

Lightning +0.3

Lightning +0.8

Lightning +1.1

Last 10 · Trend

Lightning

3.4avg

Maple Leafs

2.6avg

Head to head2025-26 · 2 games

Lightning1

Maple Leafs1

Dec 8

Lightning0@2Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs +2 Feb 25

Maple Leafs2@4Lightning

Lightning +2

Recent formLast 10

Straight-Up

LightningL4

6-460%

Maple LeafsL6

3-730%

Against the Spread

Lightning3 fail

5-550%

Maple Leafs

3-730%

Season records2025-26 · 60g / 63g

Team

ATS

O/U

Lightning

Overall

63%38-22

50%30-30

Maple Leafs

Overall

43%27-36

40%25-38

57%36-27

Matchup venueRoad / Home splits

Team

ATS

O/U

Lightning

On Road

61%19-12

48%15-16

Maple Leafs

At Home

48%16-17

36%12-21

58%19-14

Player prop results23 players · 64 props

Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

PointsO 1.5

4✓

AssistsO 0.5

4✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 3.5

1✗

Darren RaddyshTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

5✓

Jake GuentzelTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

PointsO 0.5

2✓

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

GoalsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

William NylanderToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

PointsO 0.5

1✓

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 3.5

6✓

Brayden PointTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

PointsO 0.5

2✓

AssistsO 0.5

2✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

1✗

Brandon HagelTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

PointsO 0.5

2✓

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

GoalsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

3✓

Matthew KniesToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

2✓

John TavaresToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

Morgan RiellyToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

2✓

Oliver BjorkstrandTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

PointsO 0.5

1✓

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

Victor HedmanTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

2✓

Matias MaccelliToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

PointsO 0.5

1✓

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

Oliver Ekman-LarssonToronto Maple Leafs

2 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Anthony CirelliTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

PointsO 0.5

2✓

AssistsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

5✓

Max DomiToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

PointsO 0.5

0✗

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

Yanni GourdeTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

Shots on GoalO 1.5

0✗

Corey Perry

2 props

PointsO 0.5

1✓

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Jake McCabeToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 2.5

1✗

Brandon CarloToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

1✗

Anthony StolarzToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

SavesO 27.5

28✓

Andrei VasilevskiyTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

SavesO 23.5

27✓

Simon BenoitToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

0✗

EV picks