Who won Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs on Mar 7, 2026?

Tampa Bay Lightning won 5-2 on Mar 7, 2026.

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 2 — Mar 7, 2026 Recap

NHLSAT, MAR 7, 20266:00 PM CDT

Away

LightningTampa Bay Lightning5

Final

Home

Maple LeafsToronto Maple Leafs2

Betting Results

Spread

Lightning covered

Maple Leafs +1.5

Total

Over

7 / 6.5

Moneyline

Lightning

-215

Loading probability

Pre-Game Notes4 notes

TBL

Lost 4 straight

Lightning cold

TBL

Lost ATS 3 straight

Lightning hasn't covered in 3

TOR

Lost 6 straight

Maple Leafs cold

TOR

4 games / 7d

Maple Leafs in a stretch

Key Performers

Lightning

Darren RaddyshCold80g

0.9PTSL5 0.4

0.3G0.6A22mTOI

vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g

J.J. MoserHot86g

0.4PTSL5 0.6

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

vs Maple Leafs0PTS4g

Jake GuentzelHot88g

1.1PTSL5 1.6

0.5G0.7A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g

Nikita KucherovCold83g

1.7PTSL5 1.2

0.6G1.1A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs2.8PTS4g

Brandon HagelHot77g

1.1PTSL5 1.4

0.6G0.5A20mTOI

vs Maple Leafs1PTS4g

Goalie

Jonas JohanssonCold86g

.883SV%3.31GAA

L5 .000 SV% · 0 GAA

Maple Leafs

Jake McCabeCold82g

0.3PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.2A22mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Morgan RiellyCold80g

0.5PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.3A21mTOI

vs Lightning0.3PTS4g

Auston MatthewsCold61g

0.9PTSL5 0.2

0.4G0.4A20mTOI

vs Lightning0.5PTS4g

Oliver Ekman-LarssonCold79g

0.5PTSL5 0.2

0.1G0.4A20mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Troy Stecher60g

0.2PTS

0.1G0.2A19mTOI

vs Lightning0PTS4g

Goalie

Joseph WollCold62g

.897SV%3.45GAA

L5 .825 SV% · 3.68 GAA

ScoringSeason · per game

Team

GPG

Scored

OPP

Allowed

MARGIN

Per game

Lightning

3.5★

2.7★

+0.8★

Maple Leafs

3.2★

3.5★

-0.3★

Edge

Lightning +0.3

Lightning +0.8

Lightning +1.1

Last 10 · Trend

Lightning

3.4avg

Maple Leafs

2.6avg

Head-to-Head2025-26 · 2 games

Lightning1

Maple Leafs1

Dec 8

Lightning0@2Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs +2 Feb 25

Maple Leafs2@4Lightning

Lightning +2

Recent FormLast 10

Straight-Up

LightningL4

6-460%

Maple LeafsL6

3-730%

Against the Spread

Lightning3 fail

5-550%

Maple Leafs

3-730%

Season Records2025-26 · 60g / 63g

Team

ATS

O/U

Lightning

Overall

63%38-22

50%30-30

Maple Leafs

Overall

43%27-36

40%25-38

57%36-27

Matchup VenueRoad / Home splits

Team

ATS

O/U

Lightning

On Road

61%19-12

48%15-16

Maple Leafs

At Home

48%16-17

36%12-21

58%19-14

Player Prop Results23 players · 64 props

Anthony CirelliTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

2✓

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

5✓

Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 3.5

6✓

Brandon HagelTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

GoalsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

3✓

Brayden PointTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

2✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

1✗

Corey Perry

2 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Darren RaddyshTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

5✓

Jake GuentzelTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

GoalsO 0.5

1✓

PointsO 0.5

2✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

John TavaresToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

Matias MaccelliToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

Matthew KniesToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

2✓

Max DomiToronto Maple Leafs

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

Morgan RiellyToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

2✓

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

1✗

Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

4✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 1.5

4✓

Shots on GoalO 3.5

1✗

Oliver BjorkstrandTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

Oliver Ekman-LarssonToronto Maple Leafs

2 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Victor HedmanTampa Bay Lightning

3 props

AssistsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

0✗

Shots on GoalO 1.5

2✓

William NylanderToronto Maple Leafs

4 props

AssistsO 0.5

1✓

GoalsO 0.5

0✗

PointsO 0.5

1✓

Shots on GoalO 2.5

2✗

Brandon CarloToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

1✗

Jake McCabeToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 2.5

1✗

Simon BenoitToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

Blocked ShotsO 1.5

0✗

Yanni GourdeTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

Shots on GoalO 1.5

0✗

Andrei VasilevskiyTampa Bay Lightning

1 prop

SavesO 23.5

27✓

Anthony StolarzToronto Maple Leafs

1 prop

SavesO 27.5

28✓

Betting Results

Pre-Game Notes4 notes

Key Performers

ScoringSeason · per game

Head-to-Head2025-26 · 2 games

Recent FormLast 10

Season Records2025-26 · 60g / 63g

Matchup VenueRoad / Home splits

Player Prop Results23 players · 64 props

EV Picks