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Home/NBA Schedule/Timberwolves @ Heat

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat — Oct 21, 2026 Odds

Tip October 21, 2026

See methodology for grading rules and ROI calculation.

NBA Schedule/Timberwolves @ Heat
NBAWED, OCT 21, 20266:40 PM CDT
AwayTimberwolvesMinnesota Timberwolves55-40+105
HomeHeatMiami Heat43-40-120
Spread
Heat −1.5
Total
243.5
Moneyline
Timberwolves +105/Heat -120
Analyze with Atom
Probability
Loading probability
Pre-game notes3 notes
Rest advantage+31 days off
Covered 3 straightHeat covering against the spread
Revenge spotRecent loss vs opponent
Consensus lines
Spread
Total
ML
Timberwolves+1.5(-110)
O243.5
Timberwolves+105
Heat-1.5(-110)
U243.5
Heat-120
Line movementDraftKings
Open
Current
Move
TimberwolvesSpread
+3.5+1.5
-2.0
HeatSpread
-3.5-1.5
+2.0
Total
236.5242.5
+6.0
Over price -110 opened, -115 now
TimberwolvesML
+130+105
-25
HeatML
-155-125
+30
Books split on the total242.5 (DK) · 243.5 (FD, MGM, CZR)
Key performers
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsAnthony Edwards71g27.8PPG
5.1
RPG
3.6
APG
35
MIN
56.1
eFG%

Last 5: 24.8 ppg·vs Heat: 29.5 ppg (2g)

Julius RandleJulius Randle91g20.4PPG
6.8
RPG
4.7
APG
33
MIN
51.2
eFG%

Last 5: 11.2 ppg·vs Heat: 19 ppg (2g)

Jaden McDanielsJaden McDaniels85g15.1PPG
4.5
RPG
2.7
APG
32
MIN
55.9
eFG%

Last 5: 14.6 ppg·vs Heat: 12 ppg (2g)

Rudy GobertRudy Gobert88g10.4PPG
11.2
RPG
1.8
APG
31
MIN
65.9
eFG%

Last 5: 6.6 ppg·vs Heat: 13 ppg (2g)

Donte DiVincenzoDonte DiVincenzo86g12.1PPG
4.1
RPG
3.8
APG
30
MIN
55.7
eFG%

Last 5: 9.2 ppg·vs Heat: 11.5 ppg (2g)

Heat
Bam AdebayoBam Adebayo74g19.9PPG
9.9
RPG
3.1
APG
32
MIN
49.9
eFG%

Last 5: 16.4 ppg·vs Timberwolves: 9.5 ppg (2g)

Tyler HerroTyler Herro34g20.6PPG
4.7
RPG
4.2
APG
31
MIN
55.8
eFG%

Last 5: 15 ppg·vs Timberwolves: 17 ppg (1g)

Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins69g15.5PPG
4.9
RPG
2.7
APG
31
MIN
56.1
eFG%

Last 5: 14.2 ppg·vs Timberwolves: 11 ppg (2g)

Norman PowellNorman Powell59g21.6PPG
3.5
RPG
2.4
APG
30
MIN
55.8
eFG%

Last 5: 14.4 ppg·vs Timberwolves: 21 ppg (2g)

Davion MitchellDavion Mitchell71g9.6PPG
2.7
RPG
6.5
APG
29
MIN
57.5
eFG%

Last 5: 15.2 ppg·vs Timberwolves: 9 ppg (2g)

ScoringSeason · per game
Team
PPG
Scored
OPP
Allowed
MARGIN
Per game
TimberwolvesTimberwolves
116.4★
114.5★
+1.9★
HeatHeat
120.9★
118.6★
+2.3★
Edge
Heat +4.5
Timberwolves +4.1
Heat +0.4
Last 10 · Trend
Timberwolves
107.5avg
Heat
126.4avg
Head to head2025-26 · 2 games
Timberwolves2
VS
Heat0
Jan 3
Timberwolves125@115Heat
Timberwolves +10
Jan 6
Heat94@122Timberwolves
Timberwolves +28
Recent formLast 10
Straight-Up
Timberwolves
5-550%
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
Heat
4-640%
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
Against the Spread
Timberwolves
5-550%
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
Heat3 cover
4-640%
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
Season records2025-26 · 95g / 83g
Team
SU
ATS
O/U
Timberwolves
Overall
58%55-40
45%43-52
47%45-50
Heat
Overall
52%43-40
57%47-36
58%48-35
Matchup venueRoad / Home splits
Team
SU
ATS
O/U
Timberwolves
On Road
53%25-22
45%21-26
60%28-19
Heat
At Home
63%26-15
56%23-18
59%24-17

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