Aaron Civale

Chicago Cubs•Pitcher•2026

4.92ERA76K91.4IP7.5K/925G

72.7% HA O 5.546.7% ER O 2.542.9% OUT O 14.5

Season

Best Performer

Aaron Civale goes over 5.5 hits allowed 72.7% of the time (8-3)

Props — 202615 games with closing lines

Pitcher Ks

15g

avg 3.6

40%Over: 6-9

6vs O 3.5-115

Marlins7/4

✓✗✓✗✗✗✗✓✗✗

H: 28.6%(7)A: 42.9%(7)

Earned Runs

15g

avg 2.8

46.7%Over: 7-8

4vs O 2.5-161

Marlins7/4

✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✗✗✗

H: 57.1%(7)A: 37.5%(8)

Hits Allowed

15g

avg 6.2

66.7%Over: 10-5

6vs O 5.5-145

Marlins7/4

✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✓✗

H: 83.3%(6)A: 60%(5)

Walks Allowed

15g

avg 1.5

40%Over: 6-9

2vs O 1.5+112

Marlins7/4

✓✗✗✓✗✓✗✓✓✗

H: 42.9%(7)A: 28.6%(7)

Outs Recorded

13g

avg 14.4

30.8%Over: 4-9

14vs O 14.5-143

Marlins7/4

✗✓✗✗✗✗✗✗✓✗

H: 25%(4)A: 66.7%(3)

Inside Edge

Star Ratings

Avg Rating

1.7★★★★★

5-Star Games

0(0%)

Total Matchups

Distribution

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Civale's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

Stars	Pitcher KsO 3.5	Earned RunsO 2.5	Hits AllowedO 5.5	Walks AllowedO 1.5	Outs RecordedO 14.5
★★★★★	33.3%(1-2)	66.7%(2-1)	50%(1-1)	33.3%(1-2)	—
★★★★★	0%(0-1)	0%(0-1)	100%(1-0)	100%(1-0)	100%(1-0)
★★★★★	75%(3-1)	25%(1-3)	66.7%(2-1)	25%(1-3)	0%(0-1)
★★★★★	25%(1-3)	60%(3-2)	100%(3-0)	25%(1-3)	50%(2-2)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Bryce Miller

8/23

Current Mariners are batting .333 in their last 42 AB's against Civale.

★★★★★vs Kade Anderson

8/22

Current Mariners are batting .333 in their last 42 AB's against Civale.

★★★★★vs Emerson Hancock

8/21

Current Mariners are batting .333 in their last 42 AB's against Civale.

Game Log

Bet

68-112 Over180 props

Date ↓	Opp	Market	Line	Actual	Result	Odds
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	6	W	+474
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	6	W	+207
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	6	W	-300
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	6	W	-115
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	6	W	-1060
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	6	W	—
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	6	L	+1080
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	6	L	—
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	6	L	—
7/4	vsMarlins	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	6	L	—
7/4	vsMarlins	Outs Recorded	O 14.5	14	L	-143
7/4	vsMarlins	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	6	W	-145
7/4	vsMarlins	Earned Runs	O 3.5	4	W	+112
7/4	vsMarlins	Hits Allowed	O 6.5	6	L	+123
7/4	vsMarlins	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	14	L	—
7/4	vsMarlins	Earned Runs	O 2.5	4	W	-161
7/4	vsMarlins	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	2	W	+112
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	2	L	-185
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	2	L	-450
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	2	L	+270
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	2	L	+120
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	2	L	+580
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	2	W	-1980
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	2	L	—
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	2	L	—
6/28	@Angels	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	2	L	+1180
6/28	@Angels	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	7	W	+122
6/28	@Angels	Earned Runs	O 2.5	4	W	-110
6/28	@Angels	Outs Recorded	O 14.5	15	W	-150
6/28	@Angels	Outs Recorded	O 15.5	15	L	—
6/28	@Angels	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	1	L	+114
6/28	@Angels	Hits Allowed	O 4.5	7	W	-165
6/23	@Giants	Hits Allowed	O 5.5	6	W	+109
6/23	@Giants	Outs Recorded	O 14.5	12	L	-140
6/23	@Giants	Earned Runs	O 2.5	2	L	-109
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	5	W	+120
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	5	W	+270
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	5	L	+575
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	5	W	-200
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 6.5	5	L	+1260
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 1.5	5	W	-870
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 8.5	5	L	—
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 7.5	5	L	—
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 9.5	5	L	—
6/23	@Giants	Walks Allowed	O 1.5	0	L	+102
6/23	@Giants	Pitcher Ks	O 0.5	5	W	—
6/17	vsPirates	Pitcher Ks	O 4.5	2	L	+236
6/17	vsPirates	Pitcher Ks	O 3.5	2	L	+103
6/17	vsPirates	Pitcher Ks	O 2.5	2	L	-242
6/17	vsPirates	Pitcher Ks	O 5.5	2	L	+526

Chicago Cubs Teammates

View all

Pete Crow-Armstrong Ian Happ Michael Busch Alex Bregman Nico Hoerner Seiya Suzuki Dansby Swanson Carson Kelly Miguel Amaya Michael Conforto Nicky Lopez Tyrone Taylor Gabriel Arias Moisés Ballesteros Matt Shaw

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Aaron Civale hit the over on pitcher ks 3.5?

Aaron Civale hits the over on pitcher ks 3.5 35.7% of the time in 2026, going 5-9 with an average actual of 3.4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$552.

How often does Aaron Civale hit the over on earned runs 2.5?

Aaron Civale hits the over on earned runs 2.5 46.7% of the time in 2026, going 7-8 with an average actual of 2.8. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$180.

How often does Aaron Civale hit the over on hits allowed 5.5?

Aaron Civale hits the over on hits allowed 5.5 72.7% of the time in 2026, going 8-3 with an average actual of 6.4. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned +$499.

How often does Aaron Civale hit the over on walks allowed 1.5?

Aaron Civale hits the over on walks allowed 1.5 35.7% of the time in 2026, going 5-9 with an average actual of 1.3. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$481.

How often does Aaron Civale hit the over on outs recorded 14.5?

Aaron Civale hits the over on outs recorded 14.5 42.9% of the time in 2026, going 3-4 with an average actual of 13.9. Based on $100 flat bets at best closing odds, this line has returned -$114.

What are Aaron Civale's best prop bets in 2026?

Aaron Civale's highest-hitting props in 2026: Hits Allowed O 5.5 at 72.7% (8-3); Earned Runs O 2.5 at 46.7% (7-8); Outs Recorded O 14.5 at 42.9% (3-4).