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Players/MLB/Minnesota Twins/Zebby Matthews/Earned Runs
Zebby Matthews

Zebby Matthews

Minnesota Twins•Pitcher•2026
5.18ERA81K95.5IP7.6K/917G
5.18ERA81K95.5IP7.6K/917G
58.8% BBA O 1.557.1% OUT O 17.552.9% ER O 2.5
Season
All Zebby Matthews props

Props — 202617 games with closing lines

Earned Runs

17g
avg 3.2
52.9%Over: 9-8
1vs O 2.5-133
vsBraves8/18
✗✓✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✗
H: 25%(8)A: 77.8%(9)
SeasonalityAll lines
50%
20%
80%
67%
May
2-2
Jun
1-4
Jul
4-1
Aug
2-1
Inside Edge

Inside Edge

Star Ratings
Avg Rating
2.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(7%)
Total Matchups
15
Distribution
5
4
3
2
1

Prop Performance by Star Rating

How Matthews's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating

StarsPitcher KsO 4.5Outs RecordedO 17.5Earned RunsO 2.5Hits AllowedO 5.5Walks AllowedO 1.5
★★★★★0%(0-1)100%(1-0)0%(0-1)100%(1-0)0%(0-1)
★★★★★66.7%(2-1)66.7%(2-1)66.7%(2-1)33.3%(1-2)33.3%(1-2)
★★★★★50%(3-3)40%(2-3)100%(6-0)66.7%(4-2)83.3%(5-1)
★★★★★66.7%(2-1)100%(2-0)0%(0-3)50%(1-1)66.7%(2-1)
★★★★★0%(0-2)50%(1-1)0%(0-2)0%(0-2)50%(1-1)

Recent Scouting Notes

★★★★★vs Tyler Mahle
8/18

Right-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Matthews have an ERA of 5.19 against the Braves since last year.

★★★★★vs Shane Baz
8/12

Right-handed starters have an ERA of 3.79 against the Orioles since last season, but other matchup data favors the Orioles.

★★★★★vs Bryce Miller
7/31

Current Mariners hitters are batting .226 against hard-throwing right-handed pitchers like Matthews over the last two years.

Game Log

Bet
$
11-10 Over17g · 21 props
Date ↓OppLineActualResultOdds
8/18vsBravesO 2.51L-133
8/12vsOriolesO 2.54W-110
8/7@BrewersO 2.53W-140
7/31@MarinersO 2.53W-113
7/24vsAthleticsO 2.52L-122
7/19@CubsO 2.58W-119
7/10vsAngelsO 2.54W-105
7/4@YankeesO 3.54W+120
7/4@YankeesO 2.54W-165
6/29@AstrosO 2.51L-130
6/22vsDodgersO 2.52L-160
6/22vsDodgersO 3.52L+123
6/16@RangersO 2.52L-110
6/11@TigersO 2.57W-142
6/5vsRoyalsO 2.52L-120
5/31@PiratesO 2.57W+101
5/25@White SoxO 2.53W-112
5/19vsAstrosO 1.52W-170
5/19vsAstrosO 2.52L+119
5/14vsMarlinsO 2.50L+116
5/14vsMarlinsO 1.50L-171

Minnesota Twins Teammates

View all
Luke KeaschallJosh BellBrooks LeeKody ClemensByron BuxtonRoyce LewisTrevor LarnachVictor CaratiniAustin MartinRyan JeffersRyan KreidlerTristan GrayJames OutmanMatt WallnerAlan Roden

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does Zebby Matthews hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Zebby Matthews hits the over on earned runs 2.5 52.9% of the time in 2026, going 9-8 with an average actual of 3.2.
Is Zebby Matthews over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 17 games in 2026, betting $100 on Zebby Matthews over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$49 (-2.88% ROI). The hit rate is 52.9% with an average actual of 3.2.
What is Zebby Matthews's earned runs average this season?
Zebby Matthews averages 3.2 earned runs per game in 2026 across 17 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.

Zebby Matthews 2026 player props sourced from historical closing lines on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Results graded against official MLB box scores.17 games analyzed across 5 markets. Data updates daily. Free on LineTerminal.

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