Inside Edge
Boston Red Sox73.2% HRR O 0.565.9% H O 0.548.8% 1B O 0.5
Season
All Trevor Story propsProps — 202646 games with closing lines
Home Runs
46g7.3%Over: 3-38-5
0vs O 0.5+760
@
Braves5/16
Braves5/16PP✗✓✗✗P✗✗✗
H: 4.3%(23)A: 8.7%(23)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.1★★★★★
5-Star Games
4(9%)
Total Matchups
45Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Story's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(4-0) | 0%(0-4) | 0%(0-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 56.3%(9-7) | 0%(0-16) | 12.5%(2-14) |
| ★★★★★ | 70%(7-3) | 30%(3-7) | 60%(6-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 45.5%(5-6) | 0%(0-11) | 9.1%(1-10) |
| ★★★★★ | 25%(1-3) | 0%(0-4) | 25%(1-3) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Bryce Elder
5/16Story is slugging .460 in his last 125 PA's against right-handers with high groundball rates like Elder over the last 2 seasons.
★★★★★vs Spencer Strider
5/15Story has an OPS of .905 over his last 5 games but is batting just .209 (14-for-67) against right-handers who rely heavily on the splitter like Strider.
★★★★★vs Jesus Luzardo
5/14Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .504 against right-handed batters who hit for high average like Story over the last 2 years.
Game Log
Bet
$
3-86-10 Over46g · 99 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +760 |
| 5/16 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 5/15 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +800 |
| 5/15 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +8000 |
| 5/14 | vs Phillies | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 5/14 | vsPhillies | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +960 |
| 5/13 | vsPhillies | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +8000 |
| 5/13 | vsPhillies | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +650 |
| 5/12 | vsPhillies | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +890 |
| 5/12 | vsPhillies | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/10 | vs Rays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/10 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +680 |
| 5/9 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 5/9 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +760 |
| 5/8 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/8 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +730 |
| 5/7 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +730 |
| 5/7 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/6 | @ Tigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +690 |
| 5/6 | @Tigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8300 |
| 5/5 | @Tigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +850 |
| 5/5 | @Tigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 5/4 | @Tigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +700 |
| 5/4 | @Tigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/3 | vs Astros | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +650 |
| 5/3 | vsAstros | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 5/2 | vsAstros | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/2 | vsAstros | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +650 |
| 5/1 | vsAstros | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +880 |
| 5/1 | vsAstros | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 4/29 | @ Blue Jays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +570 |
| 4/29 | @Blue Jays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +7500 |
| 4/28 | @Blue Jays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +800 |
| 4/28 | @Blue Jays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 4/27 | @Blue Jays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +750 |
| 4/27 | @Blue Jays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 4/26 | @ Orioles | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +770 |
| 4/26 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 4/25 | @Orioles | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +710 |
| 4/25 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 4/24 | @Orioles | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +680 |
| 4/24 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 4/23 | vs Yankees | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +920 |
| 4/23 | vsYankees | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 4/22 | vsYankees | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1120 |
| 4/22 | vsYankees | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +20000 |
| 4/21 | vsYankees | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 4/21 | vsYankees | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +775 |
| 4/20 | vsTigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +730 |
| 4/20 | vsTigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
Boston Red Sox Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Trevor Story hit the over on home runs 0.5?
Trevor Story hits the over on home runs 0.5 7.3% of the time in 2026, going 3-38-5 with an average actual of 0.1.
Is Trevor Story over 0.5 home runs a good bet?
Based on 46 games in 2026, betting $100 on Trevor Story over 0.5 home runs at best closing odds has returned -$2,150 (-46.74% ROI). The hit rate is 7.3% with an average actual of 0.1.
What is Trevor Story's home runs average this season?
Trevor Story averages 0.1 home runs per game in 2026 across 46 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.