Inside Edge
Tampa Bay Rays69.2% BBA O 1.557.1% K O 5.554.5% HA O 4.5
Season
All Ryan Pepiot propsProps — 202531 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
31g48.4%Over: 15-16
3vs O 3.5-119
@
Orioles9/23
Orioles9/23✗✗✗✗✗✓✓✓✓✗
H: 41.7%(12)A: 70%(10)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
10(32%)
Total Matchups
31Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Pepiot's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Pitcher KsO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 28.6%(2-5) | 28.6%(2-5) | 62.5%(5-3) | 70%(7-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 50%(2-2) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(4-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(2-4) | 60%(3-2) | 75%(3-1) | 60%(3-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(2-0) | 60%(3-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 80%(4-1) | 100%(3-0) | 20%(1-4) | 50%(1-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
9/23Orioles hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Pepiot.
★★★★★
9/16Blue Jays hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Pepiot.
★★★★★
9/4Pitchers with similar repertoires to Pepiot have an ERA of 3.91 against the Guardians over the last year, but other matchup data favors the Guardians.
Game Log
Bet
$
16-20 Over31g · 36 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23 | @Orioles | O 3.5 | 3 | L | -119 |
| 9/16 | vs Blue Jays | O 4.5 | 4 | L | +105 |
| 9/4 | vs Guardians | O 3.5 | 0 | L | -155 |
| 9/4 | vsGuardians | O 4.5 | 0 | L | -130 |
| 8/30 | @ Nationals | O 4.5 | 1 | L | -120 |
| 8/24 | vs Cardinals | O 4.5 | 1 | L | -155 |
| 8/17 | @ Giants | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -140 |
| 8/11 | @ Athletics | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +115 |
| 8/11 | @Athletics | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -165 |
| 8/5 | @ Angels | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -130 |
| 7/31 | @ Yankees | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -120 |
| 7/26 | @ Reds | O 5.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 7/20 | vsOrioles | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -120 |
| 7/13 | @ Red Sox | O 5.5 | 7 | W | +110 |
| 7/8 | @ Tigers | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -155 |
| 7/8 | @Tigers | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +120 |
| 7/2 | vsAthletics | O 4.5 | 4 | L | +100 |
| 6/27 | @Orioles | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -120 |
| 6/21 | vsTigers | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -130 |
| 6/16 | vsOrioles | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -135 |
| 6/10 | @Red Sox | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +110 |
| 6/5 | vs Rangers | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +115 |
| 6/5 | vsRangers | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -165 |
| 5/30 | @ Astros | O 5.5 | 2 | L | -120 |
| 5/25 | vsBlue Jays | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +110 |
| 5/19 | vsAstros | O 5.5 | 8 | W | +120 |
| 5/14 | @Blue Jays | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -160 |
| 5/8 | vs Phillies | O 5.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 5/2 | @Yankees | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -160 |
| 4/26 | @ Padres | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -150 |
| 4/20 | vsYankees | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -130 |
| 4/15 | vsRed Sox | O 4.5 | 9 | W | -125 |
| 4/9 | vsAngels | O 4.5 | 6 | W | +125 |
| 4/9 | vsAngels | O 3.5 | 6 | W | -165 |
| 4/2 | vs Pirates | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +125 |
| 3/28 | vs Rockies | O 3.5 | 6 | W | +100 |
Tampa Bay Rays Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Ryan Pepiot hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Ryan Pepiot hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 54.5% of the time in 2025, going 12-10 with an average actual of 4.4.
Is Ryan Pepiot over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 31 games in 2025, betting $100 on Ryan Pepiot over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$279 (-9% ROI). The hit rate is 54.5% with an average actual of 4.4.
What is Ryan Pepiot's hits allowed average this season?
Ryan Pepiot averages 4.4 hits allowed per game in 2025 across 31 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.