Miami Marlins58.3% HA O 4.553.3% K O 4.542.9% ER O 2.5
Props — 202517 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
17g47.1%Over: 8-9
9vs O 2.5+110
vs
Braves8/27
Braves8/27✓✓✓✗✓✗✓✗✗✓
H: 36.4%(11)A: 66.7%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.5★★★★★
5-Star Games
0(0%)
Total Matchups
28Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Gusto's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 60%(6-4) | 40%(4-6) | 60%(6-4) | 50%(6-6) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
9/1Current Nationals hitters are batting .252 in their last 1,183 AB's against pitchers with a similar repertoire to like Gusto, but other matchup data favors the Nationals.
★★★★★
8/27Several hitters in the Braves lineup have a 5-star matchup against Gusto today.
★★★★★
8/9Right-handed starters have an ERA of 2.76 against the Braves in the past 30 days, but other matchup data favors the Braves.
Game Log
Bet
$
8-9 Over17g · 17 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/27 | vsBraves | O 2.5 | 9 | W | +110 |
| 8/22 | vs Blue Jays | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -105 |
| 8/9 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -170 |
| 7/30 | vs Nationals | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +125 |
| 7/25 | vs Athletics | O 2.5 | 8 | W | +115 |
| 7/6 | @ Dodgers | O 3.5 | 1 | L | +120 |
| 6/22 | @ Angels | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -110 |
| 6/16 | @Athletics | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -145 |
| 6/11 | vs White Sox | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +115 |
| 6/4 | @ Pirates | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +115 |
| 5/29 | vs Rays | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +110 |
| 5/23 | vs Mariners | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +125 |
| 5/12 | vs Royals | O 2.5 | 7 | W | +120 |
| 4/29 | vs Tigers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +125 |
| 4/23 | vsBlue Jays | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +125 |
| 4/18 | vs Padres | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/12 | vsAngels | O 1.5 | 3 | W | +100 |
Miami Marlins Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Ryan Gusto hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Ryan Gusto hits the over on earned runs 2.5 42.9% of the time in 2025, going 6-8 with an average actual of 3.6.
Is Ryan Gusto over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 17 games in 2025, betting $100 on Ryan Gusto over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$95 (-5.59% ROI). The hit rate is 42.9% with an average actual of 3.6.
What is Ryan Gusto's earned runs average this season?
Ryan Gusto averages 3.6 earned runs per game in 2025 across 17 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge