Inside Edge
Cleveland Guardians90% K O 4.562.5% BBA O 1.550% OUT O 17.5
Season
All Parker Messick propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
10g40%Over: 4-6
4vs O 4.5-158
@
Tigers5/19
Tigers5/19✗✗✓✓✗✓✗✗✗✓
H: 40%(5)A: 50%(2)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
2(22%)
Total Matchups
9Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Messick's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-2) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-2) | — | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Keider Montero
5/19Tigers hitters have a 2.5 star average matchup against Messick.
★★★★★vs Reid Detmers
5/13Pitchers with similar repertoires to Messick have an ERA of 2.11 against the Angels over the last year.
★★★★★vs Connor Prielipp
5/8Current Twins hitters have struck out 24.8% of the time against pitchers similar to Messick over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
Game Log
Bet
$
5-8 Over10g · 13 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19 | @Tigers | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +110 |
| 5/19 | @Tigers | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -158 |
| 5/13 | vs Angels | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -107 |
| 5/8 | vs Twins | O 4.5 | 7 | W | +119 |
| 5/3 | @ Athletics | O 5.5 | 6 | W | -105 |
| 4/27 | vs Rays | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +115 |
| 4/21 | vs Astros | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -115 |
| 4/21 | vsAstros | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +120 |
| 4/16 | vs Orioles | O 4.5 | 2 | L | -122 |
| 4/11 | @ Braves | O 5.5 | 4 | L | +123 |
| 4/5 | vs Cubs | O 4.5 | 2 | L | -137 |
| 3/30 | @ Dodgers | O 5.5 | 5 | L | +125 |
| 3/30 | @Dodgers | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -130 |
Cleveland Guardians Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Parker Messick hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Parker Messick hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 42.9% of the time in 2026, going 3-4 with an average actual of 4.3.
Is Parker Messick over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Parker Messick over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$219 (-21.9% ROI). The hit rate is 42.9% with an average actual of 4.3.
What is Parker Messick's hits allowed average this season?
Parker Messick averages 4.3 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.