Cleveland Guardians72.2% K O 4.562.5% BBA O 1.557.1% HA O 4.5
Season
All Parker Messick propsProps — 202618 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
18g38.9%Over: 7-11
1vs O 1.5-155
vs
White Sox7/4
White Sox7/4✗✓✓✗✓✓✗✗✗✓
H: 60%(5)A: 28.6%(7)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.7★★★★★
5-Star Games
7(41%)
Total Matchups
17Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Messick's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 57.1%(4-3) | 66.7%(2-1) | 57.1%(4-3) | 50%(3-3) | 57.1%(4-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 75%(3-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-2) | — | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Sean Burke
7/4Left-handed starters have allowed a batting average of .253 against the White Sox over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Tyler Alexander
6/29Left-handed starters have allowed a batting average of .250 against the Rangers over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Sean Burke
6/23Left-handed starters have allowed a batting average of .255 against the White Sox over the last two years.
Game Log
Bet
$
11-12 Over18g · 23 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4 | vsWhite Sox | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -155 |
| 6/29 | vs Rangers | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +130 |
| 6/29 | vsRangers | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -168 |
| 6/23 | @White Sox | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -154 |
| 6/18 | @ Brewers | O 1.5 | 2 | W | — |
| 6/18 | @Brewers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 6/10 | vs Yankees | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +125 |
| 6/5 | @Rangers | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +125 |
| 6/5 | @Rangers | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -185 |
| 5/30 | vs Red Sox | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -135 |
| 5/24 | @ Phillies | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +110 |
| 5/19 | @ Tigers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +123 |
| 5/13 | vs Angels | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -139 |
| 5/8 | vs Twins | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -145 |
| 5/3 | @ Athletics | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +105 |
| 4/27 | vs Rays | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +127 |
| 4/27 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -173 |
| 4/21 | vs Astros | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +123 |
| 4/16 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +125 |
| 4/16 | vsOrioles | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -155 |
| 4/11 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +113 |
| 4/5 | vs Cubs | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -158 |
| 3/30 | @ Dodgers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -112 |
Cleveland Guardians Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Parker Messick hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Parker Messick hits the over on earned runs 2.5 41.7% of the time in 2026, going 5-7 with an average actual of 2.1.
Is Parker Messick over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 18 games in 2026, betting $100 on Parker Messick over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$355 (-19.72% ROI). The hit rate is 41.7% with an average actual of 2.1.
What is Parker Messick's earned runs average this season?
Parker Messick averages 2.1 earned runs per game in 2026 across 18 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge