Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals80% K O 4.575% OUT O 17.560% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Michael Wacha propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
10g30%Over: 3-7
1vs O 2.5+124
vs
Red Sox5/20
Red Sox5/20✗✓✗✗✓✓✗✗✗✗
H: 20%(5)A: 40%(5)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(10%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Wacha's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(2-0) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 75%(3-1) | 25%(1-3) | 0%(0-2) | 50%(2-2) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Connelly Early
5/20Red Sox hitters have a 1.5 star average matchup against Wacha.
★★★★★vs Dustin May
5/15Current Cardinals hitters are batting .251 in their last 1,315 AB's against right-handed pitchers with a similar repertoire to like Wacha, but other matchup data favors the Cardinals.
★★★★★vs Burch Smith
5/9Right-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Wacha have an ERA of 4.46 against the Tigers since last year.
Game Log
Bet
$
4-10 Over10g · 14 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | vsRed Sox | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +124 |
| 5/20 | vsRed Sox | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -174 |
| 5/15 | @ Cardinals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -126 |
| 5/9 | vs Tigers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -120 |
| 5/4 | vs Guardians | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -120 |
| 4/29 | @ Athletics | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +110 |
| 4/29 | @Athletics | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -160 |
| 4/22 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -116 |
| 4/17 | @ Yankees | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -142 |
| 4/17 | @Yankees | O 3.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/11 | vs White Sox | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +120 |
| 4/6 | @Guardians | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +121 |
| 4/6 | @Guardians | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -158 |
| 3/28 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -104 |
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Michael Wacha hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Michael Wacha hits the over on earned runs 2.5 30% of the time in 2026, going 3-7 with an average actual of 1.9.
Is Michael Wacha over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Michael Wacha over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$472 (-47.2% ROI). The hit rate is 30% with an average actual of 1.9.
What is Michael Wacha's earned runs average this season?
Michael Wacha averages 1.9 earned runs per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.