Kansas City Royals73.3% OUT O 17.572.2% K O 4.562.5% HA O 5.5
Season
All Michael Wacha propsProps — 202618 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
18g44.4%Over: 8-10
4vs O 2.5-140
vs
Phillies7/4
Phillies7/4✓✗✗✓✓✓✓✗✗✓
H: 37.5%(8)A: 50%(10)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.7★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(6%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Wacha's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(4-0) | 50%(2-2) | 75%(3-1) | 100%(4-0) | 50%(2-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 83.3%(5-1) | 33.3%(2-4) | 50%(2-2) | 33.3%(2-4) | 100%(4-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 33.3%(1-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 33.3%(1-2) | 100%(2-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 25%(1-3) | 75%(3-1) | 75%(3-1) | 25%(1-3) | 50%(2-2) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Jesús Luzardo
7/4Right-handed starters have an ERA of 6.41 against the Phillies in the past 30 days.
★★★★★vs Davis Martin
6/27Wacha has struck out 24% of the White Sox hitters he has faced in 50 PA's over the last 2 years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the White Sox.
★★★★★vs Drew Rasmussen
6/22Rays hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Wacha.
Game Log
Bet
$
10-13 Over18g · 23 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4 | vsPhillies | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -140 |
| 6/27 | @ White Sox | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -105 |
| 6/22 | @ Rays | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -120 |
| 6/16 | @ Nationals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -140 |
| 6/11 | vs Rangers | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +124 |
| 6/11 | vsRangers | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -160 |
| 6/5 | @ Twins | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -112 |
| 5/31 | @Rangers | O 2.5 | 6 | W | +115 |
| 5/25 | vs Yankees | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -113 |
| 5/20 | vs Red Sox | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +124 |
| 5/20 | vsRed Sox | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -174 |
| 5/15 | @ Cardinals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -126 |
| 5/9 | vs Tigers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -120 |
| 5/4 | vs Guardians | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -120 |
| 4/29 | @ Athletics | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +110 |
| 4/29 | @Athletics | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -160 |
| 4/22 | vs Orioles | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -116 |
| 4/17 | @Yankees | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -142 |
| 4/17 | @Yankees | O 3.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 4/11 | vsWhite Sox | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +120 |
| 4/6 | @Guardians | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +121 |
| 4/6 | @Guardians | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -158 |
| 3/28 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -104 |
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Michael Wacha hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Michael Wacha hits the over on earned runs 2.5 44.4% of the time in 2026, going 8-10 with an average actual of 2.4.
Is Michael Wacha over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 18 games in 2026, betting $100 on Michael Wacha over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$362 (-20.11% ROI). The hit rate is 44.4% with an average actual of 2.4.
What is Michael Wacha's earned runs average this season?
Michael Wacha averages 2.4 earned runs per game in 2026 across 18 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge