Colorado Rockies88.2% K O 1.566.7% HA O 5.558.3% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Michael Lorenzen propsProps — 202617 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
17g47.1%Over: 8-9
4vs O 3.5-112
vs
Marlins7/2
Marlins7/2✓✗✓✗✗✓✗✓✓✗
H: 55.6%(9)A: 50%(4)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
1.8★★★★★
5-Star Games
0(0%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lorenzen's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 1.5 | Earned RunsO 3.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(3-0) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-2) | 33.3%(1-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 90%(9-1) | 55.6%(5-4) | 83.3%(5-1) | 87.5%(7-1) | 12.5%(1-7) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Justin Wrobleski
7/7Right-handed starters have an ERA of 4.43 against the Dodgers in the past 30 days.
★★★★★vs Ryan Gusto
7/2Marlins hitters have a 4 star average matchup against Lorenzen.
★★★★★vs Mike Paredes
6/27Current Twins hitters have struck out just 16.7% of the time against bottom-tier right-handed pitchers like Lorenzen over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
Game Log
Bet
$
13-12 Over17g · 25 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/2 | vsMarlins | O 3.5 | 4 | W | -112 |
| 6/27 | @ Twins | O 3.5 | 2 | L | +119 |
| 6/27 | @Twins | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -150 |
| 6/21 | vs Pirates | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +110 |
| 6/15 | @ Cubs | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -175 |
| 6/15 | @Cubs | O 3.5 | 1 | L | +111 |
| 6/10 | vsCubs | O 3.5 | 1 | L | -138 |
| 6/3 | @ Angels | O 2.5 | 8 | W | -115 |
| 5/29 | vs Giants | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -145 |
| 5/29 | vsGiants | O 3.5 | 3 | L | +107 |
| 5/23 | @ Diamondbacks | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -156 |
| 5/23 | @Diamondbacks | O 3.5 | 5 | W | +115 |
| 5/17 | vsDiamondbacks | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -154 |
| 5/17 | vsDiamondbacks | O 3.5 | 6 | W | +115 |
| 5/12 | @Pirates | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -150 |
| 5/6 | vs Mets | O 3.5 | 7 | W | +107 |
| 4/30 | @ Reds | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +110 |
| 4/30 | @Reds | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -162 |
| 4/24 | @Mets | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +104 |
| 4/19 | vs Dodgers | O 3.5 | 3 | L | -121 |
| 4/14 | @ Astros | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -109 |
| 4/8 | vsAstros | O 3.5 | 1 | L | +106 |
| 4/8 | vsAstros | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -161 |
| 4/3 | vs Phillies | O 2.5 | 9 | W | -158 |
| 4/3 | vsPhillies | O 3.5 | 9 | W | +115 |
Colorado Rockies Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Michael Lorenzen hit the over on earned runs 3.5?
Michael Lorenzen hits the over on earned runs 3.5 53.8% of the time in 2026, going 7-6 with an average actual of 3.8.
Is Michael Lorenzen over 3.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 17 games in 2026, betting $100 on Michael Lorenzen over 3.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$57 (-3.35% ROI). The hit rate is 53.8% with an average actual of 3.8.
What is Michael Lorenzen's earned runs average this season?
Michael Lorenzen averages 3.8 earned runs per game in 2026 across 17 games. The primary line is set at 3.5.
Inside Edge