Inside Edge
St. Louis Cardinals85.7% HA O 4.580% BBA O 1.550% OUT O 15.5
Season
All Matthew Liberatore propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
10g50%Over: 5-5
4vs O 2.5+100
vs
Pirates5/19
Pirates5/19✓✓✗✗✓✗✓✓✗✗
H: 50%(6)A: 33.3%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.1★★★★★
5-Star Games
0(0%)
Total Matchups
9Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Liberatore's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 25%(1-3) | 50%(2-2) | 100%(2-0) | 75%(3-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(2-0) | 100%(2-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Mitch Keller
5/19Pitchers with similar repertoires to Liberatore have an ERA of 4.47 against the Pirates over the last year.
★★★★★vs J.T. Ginn
5/13Athletics hitters have a 3.5 star average matchup against Liberatore.
★★★★★vs Michael King
5/7Left-handed starters have an ERA of 2.57 against the Padres in the past 30 days, but other matchup data favors the Padres.
Game Log
Bet
$
6-7 Over10g · 13 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19 | vsPirates | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +100 |
| 5/13 | @ Athletics | O 3.5 | 4 | W | +114 |
| 5/7 | @ Padres | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -124 |
| 5/1 | vs Dodgers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -107 |
| 4/25 | vs Mariners | O 2.5 | 5 | W | +108 |
| 4/19 | @ Astros | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -132 |
| 4/13 | vs Guardians | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +122 |
| 4/7 | @ Nationals | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -172 |
| 4/7 | @Nationals | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +130 |
| 4/1 | vs Mets | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +125 |
| 4/1 | vsMets | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -166 |
| 3/26 | vs Rays | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +130 |
| 3/26 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -165 |
St. Louis Cardinals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Matthew Liberatore hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Matthew Liberatore hits the over on earned runs 2.5 44.4% of the time in 2026, going 4-5 with an average actual of 2.6.
Is Matthew Liberatore over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Matthew Liberatore over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$74 (+7.4% ROI). The hit rate is 44.4% with an average actual of 2.6.
What is Matthew Liberatore's earned runs average this season?
Matthew Liberatore averages 2.6 earned runs per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.