Inside Edge
Detroit Tigers70% K O 3.562.5% BBA O 2.550% HA O 4.5
Season
All Jack Flaherty propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
10g50%Over: 5-5
4vs O 2.5+110
vs
Blue Jays5/17
Blue Jays5/17✓✓✗✓✓✗✗✗✓✗
H: 50%(4)A: 40%(5)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.8★★★★★
5-Star Games
0(0%)
Total Matchups
11Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Flaherty's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 3.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 2.5 | Outs RecordedO 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | — | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 71.4%(5-2) | 66.7%(4-2) | 71.4%(5-2) | 71.4%(5-2) | 33.3%(2-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | — | — |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Chris Bassitt
5/22Current Orioles hitters have struck out 26.1% of the time against pitchers similar to Flaherty over the last two years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Orioles.
★★★★★vs Kevin Gausman
5/17Current Blue Jays hitters are batting .234 in their last 1,733 AB's against right-handers who rely heavily on the slider like like Flaherty, but other matchup data favors the Blue Jays.
★★★★★vs Freddy Peralta
5/12Right-handed starters have an ERA of 2.80 against the Mets in the past 30 days, but other matchup data favors the Mets.
Game Log
Bet
$
8-6 Over10g · 14 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17 | vsBlue Jays | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +110 |
| 5/12 | @ Mets | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +107 |
| 5/6 | vs Red Sox | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -175 |
| 5/6 | vsRed Sox | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +117 |
| 5/1 | vs Rangers | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -165 |
| 5/1 | vsRangers | O 2.5 | 4 | W | +125 |
| 4/25 | @ Reds | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -102 |
| 4/20 | @Red Sox | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -106 |
| 4/15 | vs Royals | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +125 |
| 4/9 | @ Twins | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +120 |
| 4/9 | @Twins | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -175 |
| 4/4 | vs Cardinals | O 1.5 | 5 | W | -122 |
| 3/28 | @ Padres | O 1.5 | 2 | W | -165 |
| 3/28 | @Padres | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +129 |
Detroit Tigers Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Jack Flaherty hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Jack Flaherty hits the over on earned runs 2.5 44.4% of the time in 2026, going 4-5 with an average actual of 2.6.
Is Jack Flaherty over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Jack Flaherty over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$59 (-5.9% ROI). The hit rate is 44.4% with an average actual of 2.6.
What is Jack Flaherty's earned runs average this season?
Jack Flaherty averages 2.6 earned runs per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.