Inside Edge
Cleveland Guardians50% HRR O 0.540% H O 0.540% TB O 0.5
Season
All Gabriel Arias propsProps — 202612 games with closing lines
Home Runs
12g20%Over: 2-8-2
0vs O 0.5+590
vs
Orioles4/16
Orioles4/16PP✗✗✗✓✓✗✗✗
H: 20%(5)A: 16.7%(6)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
1.8★★★★★
5-Star Games
0(0%)
Total Matchups
11Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Arias's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 20%(1-4) | 20%(1-4) | 20%(1-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 33.3%(1-2) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Noah Cameron
4/7Arias has a Well-Hit Rate of just 12.8% in 39 AB's against top tier left-handers like Cameron over the last 2 seasons; League Avg: 20.1%.
★★★★★vs Michael Wacha
4/6Arias is batting just .224 (36-for-161) against right-handers with avg flyball rates like Wacha over the last 2 seasons.
★★★★★vs Edward Cabrera
4/5Arias is batting just .179 (17-for-95) against right-handers with high strikeout rates over the last 2 seasons.
Game Log
Bet
$
2-18-3 Over11g · 23 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/16 | vsOrioles | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +8000 |
| 4/16 | vsOrioles | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +590 |
| 4/7 | vs Royals | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +900 |
| 4/6 | vsRoyals | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +900 |
| 4/6 | vsRoyals | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +20000 |
| 4/5 | vs Cubs | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1000 |
| 4/5 | vsCubs | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +17500 |
| 4/5 | vsCubs | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +650 |
| 4/5 | vsCubs | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 4/3 | vsCubs | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +825 |
| 4/3 | vsCubs | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +12500 |
| 4/1 | @ Dodgers | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +12500 |
| 4/1 | @Dodgers | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +750 |
| 3/31 | @Dodgers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +700 |
| 3/31 | @Dodgers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +7500 |
| 3/30 | @Dodgers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +650 |
| 3/30 | @Dodgers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 3/29 | @ Mariners | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +875 |
| 3/29 | @Mariners | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 3/27 | @Mariners | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1150 |
| 3/27 | @Mariners | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +17500 |
| 3/26 | @Mariners | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1000 |
| 3/26 | @Mariners | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
Cleveland Guardians Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Gabriel Arias hit the over on home runs 0.5?
Gabriel Arias hits the over on home runs 0.5 20% of the time in 2026, going 2-8-2 with an average actual of 0.2.
Is Gabriel Arias over 0.5 home runs a good bet?
Based on 12 games in 2026, betting $100 on Gabriel Arias over 0.5 home runs at best closing odds has returned +$775 (+64.58% ROI). The hit rate is 20% with an average actual of 0.2.
What is Gabriel Arias's home runs average this season?
Gabriel Arias averages 0.2 home runs per game in 2026 across 12 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.