New York Mets68.3% HRR O 0.566.1% SO O 0.565.6% H O 0.5
Season
All Francisco Alvarez propsProps — 202671 games with closing lines
Home Runs
69g13.3%Over: 8-52-9
0vs O 0.5
vs
Royals7/7
Royals7/7P✗P✗✗✗✓✗✗✗
H: 15.6%(32)A: 5.7%(35)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
4.2★★★★★
5-Star Games
31(47%)
Total Matchups
66Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Alvarez's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 60%(18-12) | 30%(9-21) | 17.9%(5-23) |
| ★★★★★ | 47.6%(10-11) | 19%(4-17) | 4.8%(1-20) |
| ★★★★★ | 54.5%(6-5) | 0%(0-11) | 0%(0-11) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 33.3%(1-2) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Seth Lugo
7/7Alvarez slugged .576 in 306 AB's when hitting at home over the last year.
★★★★★vs Reynaldo López
7/6Alvarez has a wOBA of just .208 over his last 5 games in 12 PA's.
★★★★★vs Martín Pérez
7/5Alvarez is slugging .525 in his last 47 PA's against left-handed pitchers with a similar repertoire to Perez over the last 2 seasons.
Game Log
Bet
$
9-130-20 Over67g · 159 props
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Francisco Alvarez hit the over on home runs 0.5?
Francisco Alvarez hits the over on home runs 0.5 13.3% of the time in 2026, going 8-52-9 with an average actual of 0.1.
Is Francisco Alvarez over 0.5 home runs a good bet?
Based on 69 games in 2026, betting $100 on Francisco Alvarez over 0.5 home runs at best closing odds has returned -$614 (-8.9% ROI). The hit rate is 13.3% with an average actual of 0.1.
What is Francisco Alvarez's home runs average this season?
Francisco Alvarez averages 0.1 home runs per game in 2026 across 69 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.
Inside Edge