Inside Edge
Cincinnati Reds71.4% K O 3.560% ER O 2.560% HA O 5.5
Season
All Chris Paddack propsProps — 20267 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
7g42.9%Over: 3-4
7vs O 2.5-110
vs
Phillies5/3
Phillies5/3✓✗✓✗✗✗✓
H: 100%(3)A: 0%(2)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(11%)
Total Matchups
9Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Paddack's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 3.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | — | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-1) | 33.3%(1-2) | 0%(0-3) | 50%(1-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Kyle Leahy
5/22Current Cardinals hitters are batting .275 against bottom-tier right-handed pitchers like Paddack over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Joey Cantillo
5/16Current Guardians hitters are batting .238 against right-handed pitchers with a similar repertoire to like Paddack over the the last two years.
★★★★★vs Jesus Luzardo
5/3Right-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Paddack have an ERA of 4.37 against the Phillies since last year.
Game Log
Bet
$
3-5 Over7g · 8 props
Cincinnati Reds Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Chris Paddack hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Chris Paddack hits the over on earned runs 2.5 60% of the time in 2026, going 3-2 with an average actual of 4.4.
Is Chris Paddack over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 7 games in 2026, betting $100 on Chris Paddack over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$99 (-14.14% ROI). The hit rate is 60% with an average actual of 4.4.
What is Chris Paddack's earned runs average this season?
Chris Paddack averages 4.4 earned runs per game in 2026 across 7 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.