Inside Edge
Cincinnati Reds71.4% OUT O 17.570% K O 4.557.1% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Chase Burns propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
9g33.3%Over: 3-6
3vs O 4.5-160
@
Phillies5/19
Phillies5/19✗✗✗✗✓✗✓✓✗
H: 50%(4)A: 25%(4)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.2★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(10%)
Total Matchups
10Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Burns's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 17.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 75%(3-1) | 50%(2-2) | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | — | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-2) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Jesus Luzardo
5/19Not enough matchup data.
★★★★★vs Foster Griffin
5/14Pitchers with similar repertoires to Burns have an ERA of 5.08 against the Nationals over the last year.
★★★★★vs Spencer Arrighetti
5/9Current Astros hitters have struck out 17.8% of the time against pitchers similar to Burns over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
Game Log
Bet
$
5-7 Over9g · 12 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19 | @Phillies | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -160 |
| 5/19 | @Phillies | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +117 |
| 5/14 | vs Nationals | O 4.5 | 2 | L | +100 |
| 5/9 | vs Astros | O 4.5 | 4 | L | +100 |
| 5/3 | @ Pirates | O 4.5 | 3 | L | +109 |
| 4/28 | vs Rockies | O 4.5 | 7 | W | +107 |
| 4/21 | @ Rays | O 4.5 | 4 | L | +113 |
| 4/10 | vs Angels | O 3.5 | 7 | W | -108 |
| 4/10 | vsAngels | O 4.5 | 7 | W | +130 |
| 4/5 | @ Rangers | O 3.5 | 5 | W | -127 |
| 4/5 | @Rangers | O 4.5 | 5 | W | +150 |
| 3/30 | vsPirates | O 3.5 | 1 | L | -115 |
Cincinnati Reds Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Chase Burns hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Chase Burns hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 37.5% of the time in 2026, going 3-5 with an average actual of 4.4.
Is Chase Burns over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 9 games in 2026, betting $100 on Chase Burns over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$213 (-23.67% ROI). The hit rate is 37.5% with an average actual of 4.4.
What is Chase Burns's hits allowed average this season?
Chase Burns averages 4.4 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 9 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.