Inside Edge
Boston Red Sox79.5% HRR O 0.572.7% H O 0.571.4% TB O 0.5
Season
All Ceddanne Rafaela propsProps — 202648 games with closing lines
Home Runs
48g9.1%Over: 4-40-4
0vs O 0.5+1000
@
Royals5/20
Royals5/20✗✗P✗✗✗✗✓✗✗
H: 9.1%(22)A: 7.7%(26)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.1★★★★★
5-Star Games
0(0%)
Total Matchups
50Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Rafaela's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-3) | 0%(0-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 75%(6-2) | 0%(0-8) | 0%(0-8) |
| ★★★★★ | 60%(15-10) | 12%(3-22) | 28%(7-18) |
| ★★★★★ | 72.7%(8-3) | 9.1%(1-10) | 45.5%(5-6) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Connor Prielipp
5/22Rafaela is batting just .181 (13-for-72) against left-handed pitchers with a similar repertoire to Prielipp over the last 2 seasons.
★★★★★vs Michael Wacha
5/20Rafaela has an OPS of just .725 in 611 PA's when hitting on the road over the last year.
★★★★★vs Bailey Falter
5/19Rafaela is batting just .191 (21-for-110) against left-handers with avg flyball rates like Falter over the last 2 seasons.
Game Log
Bet
$
4-90-9 Over48g · 103 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | @Royals | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1000 |
| 5/20 | @Royals | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +22500 |
| 5/19 | @Royals | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +800 |
| 5/19 | @Royals | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/18 | @Royals | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 5/18 | @Royals | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +650 |
| 5/17 | @ Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 5/17 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +820 |
| 5/16 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/16 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +880 |
| 5/15 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8600 |
| 5/15 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +800 |
| 5/14 | vs Phillies | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 5/14 | vsPhillies | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +960 |
| 5/13 | vsPhillies | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +15000 |
| 5/13 | vsPhillies | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +980 |
| 5/12 | vsPhillies | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1120 |
| 5/12 | vsPhillies | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +20000 |
| 5/10 | vs Rays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/10 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +790 |
| 5/9 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +12500 |
| 5/9 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +800 |
| 5/8 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +12500 |
| 5/8 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +800 |
| 5/7 | vsRays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +800 |
| 5/7 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +9000 |
| 5/6 | @ Tigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +725 |
| 5/6 | @Tigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8900 |
| 5/5 | @Tigers | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +900 |
| 5/5 | @Tigers | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +10000 |
| 5/4 | @Tigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +920 |
| 5/4 | @Tigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 5/3 | vs Astros | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +800 |
| 5/3 | vsAstros | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/2 | vsAstros | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/2 | vsAstros | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +725 |
| 5/1 | vsAstros | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +760 |
| 5/1 | vsAstros | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 4/29 | @ Blue Jays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +570 |
| 4/29 | @Blue Jays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 4/28 | @Blue Jays | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +830 |
| 4/28 | @Blue Jays | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 4/27 | @Blue Jays | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +790 |
| 4/27 | @Blue Jays | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
| 4/26 | @ Orioles | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1120 |
| 4/26 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +17500 |
| 4/25 | @Orioles | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +650 |
| 4/25 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 4/24 | @Orioles | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +700 |
| 4/24 | @Orioles | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
Boston Red Sox Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Ceddanne Rafaela hit the over on home runs 0.5?
Ceddanne Rafaela hits the over on home runs 0.5 9.1% of the time in 2026, going 4-40-4 with an average actual of 0.1.
Is Ceddanne Rafaela over 0.5 home runs a good bet?
Based on 48 games in 2026, betting $100 on Ceddanne Rafaela over 0.5 home runs at best closing odds has returned -$420 (-8.75% ROI). The hit rate is 9.1% with an average actual of 0.1.
What is Ceddanne Rafaela's home runs average this season?
Ceddanne Rafaela averages 0.1 home runs per game in 2026 across 48 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.