Inside Edge
Detroit Tigers66.7% OUT O 16.550% K O 4.537.5% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Casey Mize propsProps — 20268 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
8g25%Over: 2-6
4vs O 4.5+113
vs
Guardians5/21
Guardians5/21✗✗✗✗✗✓✓✗
H: 25%(4)A: 33.3%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(13%)
Total Matchups
8Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Mize's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | — | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-2) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 66.7%(2-1) | 0%(0-2) | 0%(0-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 66.7%(2-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(2-0) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Joey Cantillo
5/21Guardians hitters have a 1 star average matchup against Mize.
★★★★★vs Mason Fluharty
5/16Current Blue Jays hitters have struck out 17% of the time against pitchers similar to Mize over the last two years (League Avg: 20%).
★★★★★vs Martin Perez
4/28Right-handed starters have an ERA of 5.16 against the Braves in the past 30 days.
Game Log
Bet
$
3-7 Over8g · 10 props
Detroit Tigers Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Casey Mize hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Casey Mize hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 28.6% of the time in 2026, going 2-5 with an average actual of 4.1.
Is Casey Mize over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 8 games in 2026, betting $100 on Casey Mize over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$436 (-54.5% ROI). The hit rate is 28.6% with an average actual of 4.1.
What is Casey Mize's hits allowed average this season?
Casey Mize averages 4.1 hits allowed per game in 2026 across 8 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.