Inside Edge
Chicago Cubs69.7% HRR O 0.567.6% H O 0.567.6% TB O 0.5
Season
All Carson Kelly propsProps — 202649 games with closing lines
Runs Scored
48g37.8%Over: 14-23-11
0vs O 0.5+185
vs
Brewers5/20
Brewers5/20✗✗✓✗P✗P✓P✗
H: 26.9%(26)A: 28.6%(21)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(2%)
Total Matchups
50Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 55.6%(5-4) | 0%(0-9) | 11.1%(1-8) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(12-12) | 0%(0-23) | 16.7%(4-20) |
| ★★★★★ | 41.7%(5-7) | 8.3%(1-11) | 18.2%(2-9) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Spencer Arrighetti
5/22Kelly has a wOBA of just .244 in his last 44 PA's against right-handers who rely heavily on the cutter like Arrighetti over the last 2 seasons.
★★★★★vs Kyle Harrison
5/20Kelly batted just .242 (51-for-211) when hitting at home over the last year.
★★★★★vs Jacob Misiorowski
5/19Kelly is batting just .143 (1-7) against Misiorowski.
Game Log
Bet
$
17-78-27 Over47g · 122 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | vsBrewers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +185 |
| 5/20 | vsBrewers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1600 |
| 5/20 | vsBrewers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +4500 |
| 5/19 | vsBrewers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1400 |
| 5/19 | vsBrewers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +195 |
| 5/19 | vsBrewers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +4500 |
| 5/18 | vsBrewers | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +110 |
| 5/18 | vsBrewers | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +750 |
| 5/18 | vsBrewers | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +4000 |
| 5/17 | @ White Sox | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1000 |
| 5/17 | @White Sox | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +135 |
| 5/17 | @White Sox | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +7500 |
| 5/16 | @White Sox | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +155 |
| 5/16 | @White Sox | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +1000 |
| 5/16 | @White Sox | O 2.5 | 0 | P | +4000 |
| 5/15 | @White Sox | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +150 |
| 5/15 | @White Sox | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1000 |
| 5/15 | @White Sox | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 5/14 | @ Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +186 |
| 5/14 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +1400 |
| 5/14 | @Braves | O 2.5 | 0 | P | +4000 |
| 5/13 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +144 |
| 5/13 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +875 |
| 5/13 | @Braves | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +4000 |
| 5/12 | @Braves | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +1000 |
| 5/12 | @Braves | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +165 |
| 5/10 | @ Rangers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1300 |
| 5/10 | @Rangers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +4500 |
| 5/10 | @Rangers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +195 |
| 5/9 | @Rangers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +150 |
| 5/9 | @Rangers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 5/9 | @Rangers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1100 |
| 5/8 | @Rangers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +150 |
| 5/8 | @Rangers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +1100 |
| 5/8 | @Rangers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +8000 |
| 5/7 | vs Reds | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +850 |
| 5/7 | vsReds | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +130 |
| 5/7 | vsReds | O 2.5 | 0 | P | +3500 |
| 5/6 | vsReds | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +150 |
| 5/6 | vsReds | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +1000 |
| 5/6 | vsReds | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +7500 |
| 5/5 | vsReds | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +125 |
| 5/5 | vsReds | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +850 |
| 5/5 | vsReds | O 2.5 | 0 | P | +3300 |
| 5/4 | vsReds | O 0.5 | 0 | L | -115 |
| 5/4 | vsReds | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +480 |
| 5/4 | vsReds | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +2700 |
| 5/3 | vs Diamondbacks | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +650 |
| 5/3 | vsDiamondbacks | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +105 |
| 5/3 | vsDiamondbacks | O 2.5 | 0 | L | +3500 |
Chicago Cubs Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Carson Kelly hit the over on runs scored 0.5?
Carson Kelly hits the over on runs scored 0.5 37.8% of the time in 2026, going 14-23-11 with an average actual of 0.4.
Is Carson Kelly over 0.5 runs scored a good bet?
Based on 48 games in 2026, betting $100 on Carson Kelly over 0.5 runs scored at best closing odds has returned -$181 (-3.77% ROI). The hit rate is 37.8% with an average actual of 0.4.
What is Carson Kelly's runs scored average this season?
Carson Kelly averages 0.4 runs scored per game in 2026 across 48 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.