Chicago Cubs62.5% H O 0.562.5% TB O 0.550% 1B O 0.5
Season
All Carson Kelly propsProps — 202693 games with closing lines
Home Runs
92g6.3%Over: 4-59-29
0vs O 0.5
@
Orioles7/7
Orioles7/7P✗P✗P✗P✗✗✗
H: 4.3%(46)A: 4.5%(44)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.1★★★★★
5-Star Games
4(4%)
Total Matchups
92Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Kelly's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 25%(1-3) | 0%(0-4) | 25%(1-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(2-2) | 25%(1-3) | 25%(1-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 58.8%(10-7) | 11.8%(2-15) | 17.6%(3-14) |
| ★★★★★ | 44.4%(16-20) | 0%(0-35) | 13.9%(5-31) |
| ★★★★★ | 32.3%(10-21) | 3.2%(1-30) | 16.7%(5-25) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Shane Baz
7/7Baz has allowed a slugging percentage of .479 against right-handed batters who hit for high average like Kelly over the last 2 years.
★★★★★vs Matthew Liberatore
7/5Kelly has a wOBA of just .125 in eight PA's against Liberatore.
★★★★★vs Kyle Leahy
7/4Kelly batted just .239 (89-for-372) when hitting at home the last 2 years.
Game Log
Bet
$
4-136-65 Over90g · 205 props
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Carson Kelly hit the over on home runs 0.5?
Carson Kelly hits the over on home runs 0.5 6.3% of the time in 2026, going 4-59-29 with an average actual of 0.
Is Carson Kelly over 0.5 home runs a good bet?
Based on 92 games in 2026, betting $100 on Carson Kelly over 0.5 home runs at best closing odds has returned -$2,990 (-32.5% ROI). The hit rate is 6.3% with an average actual of 0.
What is Carson Kelly's home runs average this season?
Carson Kelly averages 0 home runs per game in 2026 across 92 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.
Inside Edge