Washington Nationals63.6% K O 3.550% HA O 5.550% BBA O 1.5
Props — 202517 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
16g43.8%Over: 7-9
5vs O 2.5+115
vs
White Sox9/28
White Sox9/28✓✗✗✓✗✓✓✓✗✗
H: 57.1%(7)A: 20%(5)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.4★★★★★
5-Star Games
5(6%)
Total Matchups
77Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Lord's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 3.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 57.1%(4-3) | 33.3%(2-4) | 33.3%(1-2) | 57.1%(4-3) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(2-0) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(2-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 33.3%(1-2) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
9/28Right-handed starters with above-average groundball rates had an ERA of 3.12 against the White Sox since last year, but other matchup data favors the White Sox.
★★★★★
9/23Braves hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Lord.
★★★★★
9/17Current Braves hitters are batting .274 against bottom-tier right-handed pitchers like Lord over the last two years.
Game Log
Bet
$
7-9 Over16g · 16 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/28 | vsWhite Sox | O 2.5 | 5 | W | +115 |
| 9/23 | @ Braves | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -125 |
| 9/17 | vsBraves | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 9/12 | vs Pirates | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +125 |
| 9/6 | @ Cubs | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -135 |
| 8/31 | vs Rays | O 2.5 | 7 | W | +115 |
| 8/25 | @ Yankees | O 2.5 | 6 | W | -135 |
| 8/20 | vs Mets | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -105 |
| 8/14 | vs Phillies | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 8/9 | @ Giants | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +105 |
| 8/3 | vs Brewers | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -110 |
| 7/28 | @ Astros | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -118 |
| 5/1 | @Phillies | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -105 |
| 4/26 | vsMets | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +115 |
| 4/14 | @Pirates | O 1.5 | 4 | W | -180 |
| 4/8 | vs Dodgers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +105 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Brad Lord hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Brad Lord hits the over on earned runs 2.5 41.7% of the time in 2025, going 5-7 with an average actual of 3.1.
Is Brad Lord over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 16 games in 2025, betting $100 on Brad Lord over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$229 (-14.31% ROI). The hit rate is 41.7% with an average actual of 3.1.
What is Brad Lord's earned runs average this season?
Brad Lord averages 3.1 earned runs per game in 2025 across 16 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge