Inside Edge
Toronto Blue Jays87.5% HA O 4.557.1% ER O 2.553.8% BBA O 1.5
Season
All Bowden Francis propsProps — 202514 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
14g64.3%Over: 9-5
1vs O 5.5+115
@
Phillies6/14
Phillies6/14✗✓✓✗✗✓✓✓✓✓
H: 80%(5)A: 100%(3)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.9★★★★★
5-Star Games
8(53%)
Total Matchups
15Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Francis's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 71.4%(5-2) | 71.4%(5-2) | 100%(4-0) | 42.9%(3-4) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 33.3%(1-2) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-2) | 50%(1-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(2-0) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
6/14Right-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Francis have an ERA of 4.93 against the Phillies since last year.
★★★★★
6/8Twins hitters have a 3 star average matchup against Francis.
★★★★★
6/3Right-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Francis have an ERA of 5.01 against the Phillies since last year.
Game Log
Bet
$
9-5 Over14g · 14 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/14 | @Phillies | O 5.5 | 1 | L | +115 |
| 6/8 | @ Twins | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -135 |
| 6/3 | vsPhillies | O 4.5 | 7 | W | -165 |
| 5/27 | @ Rangers | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +110 |
| 5/22 | vs Padres | O 5.5 | 3 | L | -160 |
| 5/16 | vs Tigers | O 5.5 | 8 | W | -125 |
| 5/10 | @ Mariners | O 5.5 | 6 | W | +120 |
| 5/4 | vs Guardians | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -165 |
| 4/29 | vs Red Sox | O 4.5 | 8 | W | -155 |
| 4/23 | @ Astros | O 4.5 | 8 | W | -140 |
| 4/18 | vsMariners | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -125 |
| 4/12 | @ Orioles | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +115 |
| 4/6 | @ Mets | O 4.5 | 6 | W | +105 |
| 3/31 | vs Nationals | O 4.5 | 2 | L | +100 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Bowden Francis hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Bowden Francis hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 87.5% of the time in 2025, going 7-1 with an average actual of 5.9.
Is Bowden Francis over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 14 games in 2025, betting $100 on Bowden Francis over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned +$216 (+15.43% ROI). The hit rate is 87.5% with an average actual of 5.9.
What is Bowden Francis's hits allowed average this season?
Bowden Francis averages 5.9 hits allowed per game in 2025 across 14 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.