Season
All Bailey Ober propsProps — 202615 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
15g53.3%Over: 8-7
4vs O 2.5-110
@
Guardians7/22
Guardians7/22✓✗✗✓✓✓✗✓✗✗
H: 37.5%(8)A: 71.4%(7)
SeasonalityAll lines
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.5★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(7%)
Total Matchups
14Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Ober's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 3.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 5.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 | Outs RecordedO 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | — |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(3-3) | 50%(3-3) | 33.3%(1-2) | 66.7%(4-2) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | — |
| ★★★★★ | 25%(1-3) | 50%(2-2) | 33.3%(1-2) | 50%(2-2) | 0%(0-1) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Slade Cecconi
7/22Current Guardians hitters are batting .245 against soft-throwing right-handed pitchers like Ober over the last two years.
★★★★★vs Colin Rea
7/17Current Cubs hitters have struck out 23.7% of the time against pitchers similar to Ober over the last two years (League Avg: 20%), but other matchup data favors the Cubs.
★★★★★vs Mitch Keller
5/30Right-handed starters with above-average flyball rates like Ober have an ERA of 3.67 against the Pirates since last year.
Game Log
Bet
$
10-8 Over15g · 18 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22 | @Guardians | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -110 |
| 7/17 | @ Cubs | O 3.5 | 2 | L | +122 |
| 7/17 | @Cubs | O 2.5 | 2 | L | — |
| 7/9 | vsGuardians | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +114 |
| 5/30 | @ Pirates | O 2.5 | 7 | W | -120 |
| 5/24 | @ Red Sox | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -102 |
| 5/17 | vs Brewers | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +111 |
| 5/12 | vs Marlins | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -119 |
| 5/6 | @ Nationals | O 2.5 | 5 | W | -147 |
| 5/6 | @Nationals | O 3.5 | 5 | W | +115 |
| 4/30 | vs Blue Jays | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +102 |
| 4/25 | @ Rays | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -117 |
| 4/19 | vs Reds | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -105 |
| 4/13 | vsRed Sox | O 2.5 | 4 | W | -115 |
| 4/8 | vs Tigers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -105 |
| 4/3 | vsRays | O 1.5 | 3 | W | -154 |
| 4/3 | vsRays | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +125 |
| 3/29 | @ Orioles | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -113 |
Minnesota Twins Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Bailey Ober hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Bailey Ober hits the over on earned runs 2.5 53.3% of the time in 2026, going 8-7 with an average actual of 2.7.
Is Bailey Ober over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 15 games in 2026, betting $100 on Bailey Ober over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned +$152 (+10.13% ROI). The hit rate is 53.3% with an average actual of 2.7.
What is Bailey Ober's earned runs average this season?
Bailey Ober averages 2.7 earned runs per game in 2026 across 15 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.
Inside Edge