Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals83.3% BBA O 1.542.9% K O 4.533.3% HA O 4.5
Props — 202514 games with closing lines
Hits Allowed
14g28.6%Over: 4-10
4vs O 4.5-145
@
Phillies9/13
Phillies9/13✗✓✗✓✗✓✗✗✗✗
H: 40%(5)A: 28.6%(7)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
3(17%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Bergert's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(3-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 14.3%(1-6) | 14.3%(1-6) | 71.4%(5-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
9/13Pitchers with similar repertoires to Bergert have an ERA of 4.53 against the Phillies over the last year.
★★★★★
9/8Guardians hitters have a 1 star average matchup against Bergert.
★★★★★
9/3Angels hitters have a 1 star average matchup against Bergert.
Game Log
Bet
$
4-12 Over14g · 16 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | @Phillies | O 4.5 | 4 | L | -145 |
| 9/8 | @ Guardians | O 4.5 | 11 | W | +105 |
| 9/3 | vs Angels | O 4.5 | 1 | L | +125 |
| 9/3 | vsAngels | O 3.5 | 1 | L | -175 |
| 8/27 | @ White Sox | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -120 |
| 8/22 | @ Tigers | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -130 |
| 8/17 | vsWhite Sox | O 4.5 | 6 | W | -130 |
| 8/10 | @ Twins | O 4.5 | 4 | L | +110 |
| 8/5 | @ Red Sox | O 4.5 | 2 | L | -165 |
| 8/5 | @Red Sox | O 5.5 | 2 | L | +120 |
| 7/29 | vs Mets | O 4.5 | 2 | L | +105 |
| 7/11 | vsPhillies | O 4.5 | 3 | L | -120 |
| 6/24 | vs Nationals | O 4.5 | 5 | W | -115 |
| 6/19 | @ Dodgers | O 5.5 | 3 | L | +125 |
| 6/14 | @ Diamondbacks | O 5.5 | 3 | L | -110 |
| 6/8 | @ Brewers | O 4.5 | 1 | L | -170 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Ryan Bergert hit the over on hits allowed 4.5?
Ryan Bergert hits the over on hits allowed 4.5 33.3% of the time in 2025, going 4-8 with an average actual of 4.
Is Ryan Bergert over 4.5 hits allowed a good bet?
Based on 14 games in 2025, betting $100 on Ryan Bergert over 4.5 hits allowed at best closing odds has returned -$648 (-46.29% ROI). The hit rate is 33.3% with an average actual of 4.
What is Ryan Bergert's hits allowed average this season?
Ryan Bergert averages 4 hits allowed per game in 2025 across 14 games. The primary line is set at 4.5.