Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals83.3% BBA O 1.542.9% K O 4.533.3% HA O 4.5
Props — 202514 games with closing lines
Earned Runs
14g21.4%Over: 3-11
3vs O 2.5-144
@
Phillies9/13
Phillies9/13✓✓✗✗✗✗✗✗✗✗
H: 25%(4)A: 28.6%(7)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
3.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
3(17%)
Total Matchups
18Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Bergert's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge pitcher star rating
| Stars | Pitcher KsO 4.5 | Earned RunsO 2.5 | Hits AllowedO 4.5 | Walks AllowedO 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 66.7%(2-1) | 100%(3-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 0%(0-1) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 33.3%(1-2) | 14.3%(1-6) | 14.3%(1-6) | 71.4%(5-2) |
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 0%(0-1) | 100%(1-0) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★
9/13Pitchers with similar repertoires to Bergert have an ERA of 4.53 against the Phillies over the last year.
★★★★★
9/8Guardians hitters have a 1 star average matchup against Bergert.
★★★★★
9/3Angels hitters have a 1 star average matchup against Bergert.
Game Log
Bet
$
4-11 Over14g · 15 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | @Phillies | O 2.5 | 3 | W | -144 |
| 9/8 | @ Guardians | O 1.5 | 8 | W | -175 |
| 9/8 | @Guardians | O 2.5 | 8 | W | +145 |
| 9/3 | vs Angels | O 1.5 | 1 | L | -175 |
| 8/27 | @ White Sox | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +100 |
| 8/22 | @ Tigers | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -110 |
| 8/17 | vsWhite Sox | O 2.5 | 1 | L | +120 |
| 8/10 | @ Twins | O 2.5 | 2 | L | +130 |
| 8/5 | @ Red Sox | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -130 |
| 7/29 | vs Mets | O 2.5 | 1 | L | -105 |
| 7/11 | vsPhillies | O 2.5 | 2 | L | -110 |
| 6/24 | vs Nationals | O 2.5 | 3 | W | +120 |
| 6/19 | @ Dodgers | O 3.5 | 0 | L | -105 |
| 6/14 | @ Diamondbacks | O 3.5 | 3 | L | +115 |
| 6/8 | @ Brewers | O 2.5 | 0 | L | -145 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does Ryan Bergert hit the over on earned runs 2.5?
Ryan Bergert hits the over on earned runs 2.5 27.3% of the time in 2025, going 3-8 with an average actual of 2.3.
Is Ryan Bergert over 2.5 earned runs a good bet?
Based on 14 games in 2025, betting $100 on Ryan Bergert over 2.5 earned runs at best closing odds has returned -$766 (-54.71% ROI). The hit rate is 27.3% with an average actual of 2.3.
What is Ryan Bergert's earned runs average this season?
Ryan Bergert averages 2.3 earned runs per game in 2025 across 14 games. The primary line is set at 2.5.