Inside Edge
Kansas City Royals57.1% H O 0.557.1% HRR O 0.557.1% RBI O 0.5
Season
All Elias Diaz propsProps — 202610 games with closing lines
Home Runs
10g42.9%Over: 3-4-3
1vs O 0.5+1050
vs
Red Sox5/20
Red Sox5/20✓✓PP✗✗✗✓P✗
H: 33.3%(6)A: 25%(4)
Seasonality
Inside Edge
Star RatingsAvg Rating
2.3★★★★★
5-Star Games
1(3%)
Total Matchups
29Distribution
5
4
3
2
1
Prop Performance by Star Rating
How Diaz's prop overs perform at the primary line based on InsideEdge hitter star rating
| Stars | HitsO 0.5 | Home RunsO 0.5 | RBIsO 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) | 100%(1-0) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 50%(1-1) | 0%(0-2) | 50%(1-1) |
| ★★★★★ | 20%(1-4) | 20%(1-4) | 20%(1-4) |
Recent Scouting Notes
★★★★★vs Logan Gilbert
5/22Diaz is batting just .191 (22-for-115) against hard-throwing right-handed pitchers like Gilbert over the last 2 seasons.
★★★★★vs Connelly Early
5/20nan like Diaz have a Well-Hit Rate of just 5.3% against Early over the last 2 seasons; League Avg: 20.2%.
★★★★★vs Ranger Suarez
5/19Matchup data is limited but favors Diaz.
Game Log
Bet
$
3-11-5 Over10g · 19 props
| Date ↓ | Opp | Line | Actual | Result | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/20 | vsRed Sox | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +10000 |
| 5/20 | vsRed Sox | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +1050 |
| 5/19 | vsRed Sox | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +40000 |
| 5/19 | vsRed Sox | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +1260 |
| 5/17 | @ Cardinals | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +10000 |
| 5/17 | @Cardinals | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +900 |
| 5/14 | @ White Sox | O 1.5 | 0 | P | +5500 |
| 5/14 | @White Sox | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +800 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/13 | @White Sox | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +800 |
| 5/10 | vs Tigers | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1050 |
| 5/10 | vsTigers | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +10000 |
| 5/6 | vs Guardians | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +15000 |
| 5/6 | vsGuardians | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +1000 |
| 4/30 | @ Athletics | O 0.5 | 1 | W | +680 |
| 4/30 | @Athletics | O 1.5 | 1 | L | +10000 |
| 4/26 | vs Angels | O 0.5 | 0 | P | +800 |
| 4/24 | vsAngels | O 0.5 | 0 | L | +900 |
| 4/24 | vsAngels | O 1.5 | 0 | L | +12500 |
Kansas City Royals Teammates
View allFrequently Asked Questions
How often does Elias Diaz hit the over on home runs 0.5?
Elias Diaz hits the over on home runs 0.5 42.9% of the time in 2026, going 3-4-3 with an average actual of 0.3.
Is Elias Diaz over 0.5 home runs a good bet?
Based on 10 games in 2026, betting $100 on Elias Diaz over 0.5 home runs at best closing odds has returned +$2,590 (+259% ROI). The hit rate is 42.9% with an average actual of 0.3.
What is Elias Diaz's home runs average this season?
Elias Diaz averages 0.3 home runs per game in 2026 across 10 games. The primary line is set at 0.5.